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I thought on the eve of the 2009 edition of the 4th of July I would share with you what I believe will be in the sports headlines accross America this coming Sunday, OCTOBER 18th. Yes, that’s right OCTOBER a full three and a half months from now. You are probably asking yourself has the Wiz lost his mind? After taking in a day game yesterday at Petco Park with my son and grand nephew I probably have fried my brain which is exactly what I did to my face and arms. If you don’t believe Notre Dame has a prayer against the Trojans then you are probably also wondering how I know they are going to be a ten point underdog. The second part is easy. The Golden Nugget in downtown Las Vegas has already posted early bird lines on 130 major college matchups and they are the ones that have installed Pete Carroll’s squad as a double digit favorite for what I believe will be one of the games that determines which teams play in the BCS Championship game next January 7th in Pasadena. I thought I would share with you some of the other key matchups either for your entertainment or maybe perhaps on your summer trip to Sin City you may want to stop by the Nugget and  put part of your college football bankroll on some of these “futures”/

Thursday, September 3rd-Boisie State-4 VS Oregon

Saturday, September 5th-Oklahoma State-3 VS Georgia, Alabama-4 VS Virginia Tech, Oklahoma-21 VS BYU, LSU-16 VS Washington

Monday, September 7th-Florida State-3 VS Miami, Florida

Thursday, September 10th-Georgia Tech-4 1/2 VS Clemson

Saturday, September 12th-Notre Dame-3 1/2 VS Michigan, USC-6 1/2 VS Ohio State, Tennessee-3 VS UCLA

Saturday, September 19th-Florida-27 VS Tennessee, Texas-17 VS Texas Tech

Saturday, September 26th-Georgia-14 VS Arizona State, Oregon-1 VS California, Alabama-10 VS Arkansas

Friday, October 2nd-Georgia-4 VS LSU, Oklahoma-10 VS Maimi, Florida, USC-8 1/2 VS California, Tennessee-6 VS Auburn

Saturday, October 17th-Texas-3 VS Oklahoma, California-3 1/2 VS UCLA, Nebraska-7 VS Texas Tech

Saturday, October 24th-Penn State-7 VS Michigan, LSU-10 VS Auburn, Notre Dame-7 VS Boston College

Saturday, October 31st-Florida-16 VS Georgia, USC-10 1/2 VS Oregon, Texas-7 VS Oklahoma State

Saturday, November 7th-Oklahoma-9 1/2 VS Nebraska, Penn State-3 VS Ohio State, Alabama-6 VS LSU, USC-14 1/2 VS Arizona State

Saturday, November 14th-Georgia-10 1/2 VS Auburn, Florida-17 VS South Carolina, Pittsburgh-1 VS Notre Dame

Saturday, Novemeber 21st-Ohio State-7 VS Michigan, Oklahoma-9 VS Texas Tech, California-3 1/2 VS Stanford

Thursday, November 26th-Texas-21 1/2 VS Texas A&M,

Friday, November 27th-Nebraska-6 VS Colorado

Saturday, November 28th-Florida-20 VS Florida State, Georgia Tech-1 VS Georgia, Alabama-8 VS Auburn, USC-18 VS UCLA, Oklahoma-10 1/2 VS Oklahoma State

Saturday, December 12th-Navy-14 1/2 VS Army

I believe most of the games I have listed have national championship implications and if I told you the October 18th sports pages would also say that the UNDEFEATED Irish now have the inside track to Pasadena would you think I was in the sun too long yesterday? Maybe. Maybe not. Either way thanks for listening.

A Bettor Approach, College Football, Football, Sports Betting The Wiz takes a look at early college football lines

An outfit called Las Vegas Sports Consultants who dispenses odds to 90% of the casinos in Nevada also ranks the thirty Major League Baseball teams on a weekly basis during the regular season. I would believe the sports book managers use these ratings to adjust their future prices on teams to win the American and National League Championships as well as the World Series. Their week twelve poll has the Boston Red Sox and the Los Angeles Dodgers ranked first and second respectively. The Sox with a record of 44-28 .611 and the Dodgers sporting a MLB best record of 47-26 .644  are the only two teams playing +.600 baseball. They both have 25-10 home records but Joe Torre’s group has experienced much more success on the road going 22-16 versus the Sox who have only gone 19-18. They have the New York Yankees ranked third and with a record of 40-32 they have fallen four games behind the Red Sox and have the Toronto Blue Jays 40-34 and Tampa Bay Rays 39-35 breathing down their necks. The regular readers of this space know that I wagered on the Blue Jays to win the American League pennant at 17 to 1 back in May. LVSC has Toronto ranked number ten up from position fourteen last week. It is my observation over the years that the REAL contenders usually stay within five games of their division lead so I have not given up hope that when they get ace Ray Halladay back in the rotation they can make a run at the boys from Fenway. The Blue Jays have been forced due to injuries to use eleven different starters five of whom are rookies. Baseball is the streakiest sport of all and this year’s edition of the Colorado Rockies are living proof of that. The Rockies have gone  17-3 since June 4th which has earned them the number 18 post in this week’s rankings. The defending world champions Phillies are ranked 4th and lead the Mets by a half game in the NL East Division. They are a league best 24-11 on the road but are an unexplainable 13-22 at home. The team I wagered on in May to win the National League Pennant the St Loius Cardinals are ranked 7th in this week’s LVSC poll.  They currently hold a one game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers a team they have exchanged the division lead with multiple times over the course of this season. The Red Birds have also suffered injuries to their pitching staff and the return of ace Chris Carpenter should tell us if they are REAL pennant contenders or middle of the road pretenders. Below I have listed the top ten as well as the bottom ten in this week’s LVSC rankings. The bottom ten might be a good way to start a bet against list for the next month or so.

Here are MLB’s worst teams according to the Las Vegas Sports Consultants

I find these weekly rankings intriguing and I have a lot of respect for the people over at Las Vegas Sports Consultants and their numbers but we haven’t even started the dog days of summer so I am in no hurry to concede the AL and NL Pennants to the Red Sox and Dodgers. Anyway the time to play the futures for Major League Baseball has come and gone. The sports books and offshore establishments have lowered the odds on all the REAL contenders to unbettable odds for most astute handicappers. Thanks for listening.

Uncategorized Weekly MLB rankings mean little today

Last Friday I gave my MLB clients the Mets at +180 versus their crosstown rival the Yankees and many of them told me later that they were able to get down on them at over +200. The Mets took an 8-7 lead in the top of the eighth inning and with ace closer Francisco Rodriguez on the mound Mets backers like myself were feeling pretty good about bringing home the BIG DOG. A-Rod quickly got himself into a ninth inning jam but Met’s backers appeared out of the woods when Alex Rodriguez popped up to three-time Gold Glove winner Luis Castillo at second base. As Castillo attempted the catch while moving towards the right field foul line the unbelievable happened. He dropped the frigging ball and then in attempt to make things better he rifled the ball to the shortstop holding Rodriguez on first base. The only problem is that in the meantime Derek Jeter scored the tying run from second and Mark Teixeira came all the way from first base to score and send the Mets down to a stunning 9-8 defeat. Losing doesn’t usually bother me but I must admit that one stung a little bit. I was just starting to forget about THAT defeat and really did not consider it yesterday when I released those same Mets as +110 dogs.  Last night the Orioles trailed the Mets by one run entering the ninth and so far this season they WERE 0-34 in such a situation. K-Rod came into pitch the ninth and with his .56 ERA and 16 saves in 17 chances (Except last Friday) once again we Mets backers felt pretty good about our wagers. Tweny pitches later we all got that sinking feeling AGAIN. After loading the bases Rodriguez walked in the tying run and then Aubrey Huff lined a single into right field to send the Orioles into a wild on field celebration. We Mets backers once again saw what appeared to be a sure victory turned into a gut wrenching defeat. These two scenarios just point out the importance of having a competent bullpen in Major League Baseball. I thought this week we should take a look at which teams have the best bullpens season to date. Below I have charted the top ten ranked bullpens in baseball:

It comes as no surprise to this handicapper that the two teams with the best records in baseball the Dodgers (44-23) and the Red Sox (40-26) are both ranked in the top four based on MLB’s ranking by ERA. Having learned the lesson TWICE in the last week ERA although important is not what we pundits are concerned with. Thus I have ranked these same ten teams in the chart below based on a more wager friendly basis.

Four of the current six division leaders are on this list: Red Sox, Dodgers, Brewers and Phillies. This is no accident because if you look at the other end of the spectrum ie the Washigton Nationals you will find that baseball’s worst team has a leaky bullpen that sports a whopping 5.57 ERA and a success rate of only 42%. As we head into the long dog days of this year’s baseball season these bullpen numbers will become more important as many starters will tail off in the number of innings they can pitch and more games will be decided in the late innings. One of the things I have learned over the years about betting the bases is that when even one of the league’s best relievers comes in to protect a lead for a team you have wagered on you still have at least a 34% chance of losing (based on Mets 66% success rate in above table) and this past week proved to be no exception. Believe it or not these stinging last minute losses is part of the allure for the millions of Americans who love to wager on sports. Thanks for listening.    

A Bettor Approach, MLB, Sports Betting In MLB a bullpen's performance makes a huge difference

Saturday afternoon Cal State Fullerton will have a freshman starting pitcher on the mound but nevertheless they have been tabbed as the 2009 College World Series favorites. Over the next two weeks eight of America’s top college programs will battle through a double elimination tournament for the right to reach the final best of three games series. As I have in past years I will take a closer look at the field from a betting angle and hopefully point to a team or two that might warrant a second look or even a good size wager. Let’s start by looking at the present odds on all eight teams by bracket:

I don’t know if it’s just me but the odds this year seem less generous than in years past. Perhaps the odds makers off shore and in Las Vegas have been burned in recent years by guys like me who pay closer attention to this event than most. Well we have to play the cards we are dealt so let’s get on with evaluating the eight squads from a handicapping angle. If you are a regular reader of this space you know that I am going to start with regular season run differential. Below I have listed the teams from best to worst:

As you can see there is a big difference from top to bottom with Virginia holding over a full run (1.04) edge over Arkansas. That doesn’t seem like much but remember this number is over an entire regular season which for most major division one teams  consists of fifty to sixty games. Having the ability to outscore the opposition two runs to one over an entire season is quite the accomplishment and Virginia, Arizona State and Cal State Fullerton have this handicappers attention. For the record LSU scored the most regular season runs (524) and Texas gave up the fewest (215).

The next stat I like to look at is how each team fared playing away from their own friendly confines or in other words their road record which I have charted below once again from best to worst. After all Omaha is a nuetral site for all eight teams.

There is Fullerton and Virginia again at the top of the chart. The only down side on backing Virginia is their lack of World Series experience which does not exist. They join Sothern Miss. as this year’s two World Series virgins. Fullerton pounded their way through both the Regionals and Super Regionals outscoring their opponents 64 to 11 and their 4 Championships over the last thirty years is second to only LSU’s 5 Championship runs during the same time frame. Texas has 3 crowns and Arizona State 1 during this period while no other team in this year’s field has exited Omaha with a Championship trophy. Experience counts and based on that fact LSU and Texas deserve an extra look based on the past success of their programs but I am going to pull a ”homer” here and pick the Titans of Cal State Fullerton to take this year’s College World Series. I sure don’t like the number (5/2) on this group that plays their home games down the freeway from me but neither can I ignore their numbers in getting here. GO TITANS!!  

A Bettor Approach, College World Series, Sports Betting Wix turns his attention to the 2009 College World Series

This week pundits are offering all kinds of methods for picking the winner of Saturday’s Belmont Stakes including dosage indexes, Beyer speed figures, Thorographs, Mazur Indexes, Centers of Distribution, Professional or stamina wings in the DP and last if not least if it rains make sure you know each horses Tomlinson Rating. Now I have been following the nags for 40+ years. My first  horse handicapping experience came back in 1965 when I was detained and cited for underage gambling at Northfield Park by a State of Ohio  gaming official. The worst part of the experience was that my parents thought I was attending my after prom party that night. Old pops went into quite the tirade when the “official” letter arrived from Columbus warning him of a hefty fine if they ever caught me again placing wagers on any four legged creatures within the state’s borders. I remember being only slightly deterred and simply switching my allegiance to old Ascot Park and Thistledown. So after all these years I have learned that betting the horses day in and day out is a losing experience and horse racing will never be a fair game until they start telling us what the horses weigh. That still doesn’t stop me from putting a little something on the Triple Crown races including Saturday’s 141st running of the Belmont Stakes. The exotic pools are huge and there are a lot people betting into them who have no idea where to buy a Racing Form let alone how to read one. Today on a lighter note I want to share with you my secret Alphabet Formula for picking the winner of Saturday’s third and final race of this year’s Triple Crown.

The Alphabet Theory is fairly easy to compute once I give you my secret formula which has taken many years to come up with. The table below will get us started.

Now comes the “secret”part. As you can see from the chart above a horse who’s name begins with the letter “C” has won the Belmont 14% of the time. That would make Chocolate Candy and Charitable Man our pre-race favorites. Horses who’s name begin with the letter “S” have won  12% of the time so that would make Summer Bird our third choice. This year there are no “P”, “H” or “A” horses and only one “B” horse, that being Nick Zito’s Brave Victory. Now as far as a betting strategy goes why don’t we box these four (1-4-6-10) with Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird (7). A $1.00 Exacta Box will run you $20.00, a $1.00 Trifecta Box will cost $60.00 and if you are feeling REALLY lucky and cash heavy buy yourself a $1.00 Superfecta ticket boxing the same five entries and that wager will set you back another $120.00. So there you have it. If probable race favorite Mine That Bird fails to hit the board and the other four entries do the good news will be that you will have made a lot of money but the bad news is that The Alphabet Theory will no longer be a SECRET!!! Good Luck and thanks for listening.

A Bettor Approach, Horseracing, Triple Crown Wiz offers unique way to bet The Belmont

Webster defines “seeding” as to schedule teams in a tournament so the superior teams do not meet in the early rounds. He also defines “superseding” as displacing one in favor of another and to force out of use as inferior. So my next question is are the eight teams seeded by the NCAA Division One baseball committee last Monday Super Seeds or soon to be Superseded? The truth is that the last five College World Series winners were unseeded at the beginning of the tournament including last year’s champion Fresno State Bulldogs who went all the way despite going only 33-27 in the regular season. The tournament starts this weekend with four teams each at sixteen locations trying to avoid two losses and elimination from the tournament. One team from each region will advance to the Super Regionals which begin next Friday and the teams switch to a best two out of three games format. So only five victories separate each team from a trip to Omaha, Nebraska for the College World Series. Six of the eight top seeds made it to Omaha last year but only three did so the year before so it goes without saying that if you do your homework there is some money to made wagering on this event. Let’s take a look at the current Las Vegas odds to win it all on the top eight seeds.

Any of the above eight teams could get hot and run the table to and through Omaha. Texas second to only USC in titles has probably the deepest pitching staff with starters Ruffin, Green and Workman and proven closer Austin Wood. They will be tough to beat but I am a little biased towards a team who opens play tonight about two miles from my home…..the Anteaters from UC Irvine.  They are armed with a couple of killer B’s named Bibona and Bergma both junior starters who have gone a combined 20-3 this season for a team that won 43 games. Southpaw Danny Bilbona starts tonight against the defending champion Bulldogs of Fresno State and rightie Christian Bergma is scheduled to take the mound on Saturday. Anteater fans should know by Sunday whether they have a shot at going to “corn country” this year. Also in the Irvine regional is San Diego State (40-12) coached by Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn and led by projected number one draft pick pitcher Steven Strasburg who went 13-0 this year with a 1.24 ERA.  The current odds on the Aztecs are 75/1. Interesting, VERY interesting!!! Personally I will be waiting for the field to be in Omaha before wagering on my pick(s). Remember these are young kids not professionals and a lot can happen between here and Omaha.

A Bettor Approach, College World Series, Sports Betting The Wiz takes an early look at the College World Series

As Governor Arnold Schwarznegger jets back from DC to the insolvent state he runs I thought I might help him with a bail out plan for Californea (as he pronounces it). Why doesn’t he follow the lead of Delaware Governor Jack Markell and legalize sports wagering accross the state and while he is at it why not legalize all forms of gambling now legal in Las Vegas. Yes, the federal government would have to approve such a measure but they are in no position to say no. How can they let four states collect revenue on this activity but yet deny that right to the other forty-six state governments. The lobbyists representing Nevada in Washington have had their way long enough. How many favors and gratuities do you think have changed hands over the years to ensure Nevada’s virtual monopoly on legalized sports wagering?

You see Delaware has no sales tax so Governor Markell has pushed through a bill that legalizes sports wagering in his state. I heard him this week on the Dan Patrick radio show say that although this activity will be limited to three facilities (racetracks) the projected revenue for the first year alone is $52 MILLION!! Now if tiny little old Delaware could wager that kind of money what do you suppose Californians would risk? Also isn’t the Govenator backing a bill to lessen our dependence on foreign oil? How much oil do you think is burned every weekend when thousands of Californians make the five hour car trek accross the desert to Las Vegas? I also find it amusing that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell feels legalizing sports wagering in “other” states would undermine the integrity of the game and make the public question certain plays and calls. Does he live in a bubble or what? He knows gambling has made the NFL the monster that it is he just can’t admit it publicly.  What does Fantasy Football add to the integrity of the game?What other business in America can hold cities hostage to build a “NEW PLANT” with tax payers money under the threat of relocating. NFL lobbyists have to be some of the most powerful people in Washington.

The NCAA also chimes in with their anti-gambling rhetoric and they too are represented in political circles by spokepersons like Rachael Newman Baker who say legalized sports wagering will undermine the college atheletes. This is the same organization that makes millions of dollars by pulling kids out of low income neighborhoods putting them on television to display their talents for four years and then what? Most of these kids do not go on to the NFL, NBA or MLB to make millions. Yet the NCAA generates more than half a billion dollars annually because of them which is ALL TAX EXEMPT REVENUE!!!! Wouldn’t we all like to be invited to some of the “events” thrown by the various NCAA personnel during the bowl season or March Madness.

Now I am not into politics and I am into politicians even less but enough is enough. Billions of dollars in revenue is being sent overseas via internet gambling and many a state could use the additional revenue generated by legalizing sports wagering accross America. Let’s hope the Govenator will wake up in time.

Uncategorized Add new tag, The Wiz helps the Govinator solve Califonia's financial crisis

With filly Rachel Alexandra being the talk of  Saturday’s 134th running of the Preakness Stakes I thought I might share with you one of the charts I have on new shooters participating in this the second jewel of the Triple Crown. A new shooter in this context is a horse that skipped the Kentucky Derby and is now entered against Derby starters at Pimlico in Baltimore on Saturday afternoon. The chart below shows how Derby horses fared in the last ten runnings of the 1 3/16 Mile Preakness. In any column filled with a “D” followed by a number it is designating a Kentucky Derby starter and where he finished in the Derby (Example: the 2001 Preakness winner finished 5th in the Derby). An “X” means a NON Derby starter finished in that position.

The chart shows that 9 out of the last 10 (90%) Preakness winners were Derby horses and 8 of 10 (80%) hit the board in the Derby. Now you exotic players may find it interesting that in 4 of the 10  (40%) last runnings the exacta was completed by Derby horses. In 3 of 10 years (30%) the trifecta was all Derby starters and in all 20 of 30 (67%) horses finishing in the money in the Preakness were also Kentucky Derby runners. This year’s Derby starters who are also running in the Preakness are listed in the chart below:

I don’t know about you but  based on history I see a lot more wagering value in the chart above than I do in betting on an 8/5 filly wheeling back in only two weeks after romping home by twenty plus lengths in the Kentucky Oaks. In fact my Derby/Preakness charts go all the way back to 1971 and I will spare you the details but in summary 33 of the last 38 (87%) Preakness winners have been Derby horses. In addition 23 of those 33 (70%) had hit the board in the Derby. Once again for you exotic players 59 of the 76 (78%) horses completing the last 38 Preakness exactas were Derby horses and 85 of the 114 (75%) entries completing the trifecta were also exiting the Kentucky Derby. Now I like a good looking filly as much as the next guy but tossing Rachel and playing a few of the seven Derby horses  might make for a more profitable Saturday. 

Stat of the Day: Since 1979 the Kentucky Derby post time favorite has run in the Preakness 25 times winning 8 times (32%) finishing second 5 times (20%) and finishing third 2 times (16%). Does that mean Friesan Fire has a 68% chance of hitting the board in Baltimore on Saturday? 

Uncategorized The Wiz takes a look at non Kentucky Derby horses in the Preakness

Just got back from my annual spring trip to the desert and the crowded streets and sidewalks of Las Vegas are for the BIRDS. Just another reminder as to why for the last several years I have chosen to set up shop at Primm Nevada otherwise known to Californians as Stateline. The crowds aren’t the only reason I avoid the Strip. The construction work is never ending. The latest project is called the The City Center located between the Bellagio and Monte Carlo resorts. The towers they are building will make the center of  the Las Vegas strip look like Dubai. I can’t understand how the city’s politicians can continue approving these projects with no thought of how people are going to get from point A to point B with their outdated freeway system and the awful congestion the locals fight when they dare use the surface streets. The good news is that the days for shopping for good future odds on the Strip appears to have come to an end at about the same time the city’s expansion plans have made it a two or three day project to get them. Gone are the days when I could pick up odds to win the American and National League pennants from a dozen different casinos in a matter of hours. Another negative is that now many of the properties are owned by the same corporation and there is little if any difference in odds.  Thank goodness the betting Gods have preserved Stateline for us old timers who are not impressed with the  “bigger is better” attitude of the Vegas politicians.

I will later compare the odds for two Strip sports books versus the numbers in Primm but first let’s take a look at some of the statistics I use to zero in on my picks. Remember I always throw out the repeaters and the favorites not because I necessarily believe they are not the best team but because they offer no value and that word value is key to winning in the long run when betting the futures in any sport. My chart as of April 30,2009 for the American League is below:

The Tampa Bay Rays last year’s winner did not make this year’s list and the Red Sox are the current 2 to 1 favorite so that puts the Blue Jays at the top of my 2009 AL list. Their 15-8 record is even more impressive when you look at the fact that they have gone 8-5 on the road. I have numbers that I am looking for in each of the columns above and the Blue Jays are the team that meets most of the criteria this year so now all we have to do is shop for the best possible odds. In the chart below I have the odds for each team listed above as posted on Tuesday at Stateline, Planet Hollywood and the Paris.

The Yankees at 6/5??? The Angels at 5/2??? Give me the Blue Jays at 17/1 and I will enjoy the summer months to come and just maybe those Blue Jays will be playing in October. Now in keeping with this week’s BIRD theme let’s take a look at the National League.

Now as you can see there are only seven teams on the NL list as opposed to ten for the AL. Why?  38 of the last 42 (90%) pennant winners were within three games of first place on April 30th. Last year’s winner the Phillies at least made the list but that 5.63 ERA and being the repeater will not get it done so let’s take a look at the three teams above them. Florida has a nice young pitching staff and they will most likely be playing in October but since I am looking for at least a 1.23 run differential on April 30th I have to pass on the Fish. The Dodgers are the 2/1 favorite so you know what that means….NATTA!!! So that leaves the Cardinals as my 2009 National League play and it sure doesn’t hurt hearing the news today about Manny being Manny. The odds for the Cardinals were 6 to 1 at Primm and Planet Hollywood but only 7/2 at Paris so once again no matter what color BIRD (RED or BLUE) you are shopping for Stateline appears to be the place to buy. The news isn’t all good from Primm though because for as many years as I can remember you have been able to get a hot dog and cold draught beer for a buck at the bar right inside the door of the casino but now it’s two and a half bucks for just the dog. At least there is no immediate threat of it looking like Dubai. Thanks for listening and let’s chat next weekend.

Stat of the Day: Since 2000 6 of the 12 (50%) teams starting the season 4-0 have made the playoffs. This year’s team that went 4-0 is the Florida Marlins.

Uncategorized The Wiz makes his MLB Pennant Picks

Every year at this time all the pundits argue about whether their horse got a good post position or not. I thought it might be fun to take a look at this year’s twenty horse field along with the history of their respective post positions since 1900. I will break the anaysis into four parts starting with  PP#1 through PP#5. As you can see from the table below there is not ONE post position that wins an inordinate amount of times but by doing some simple arithmetic we realize that 49 times out of the last 109 runnings the winner came from post position 1 thru 5. That is 45% of the time!!!

Now lets look at the post positions 6 thru 10.

Post position #9 has only won 4 times in the last 109 editions but once again if you look at the numbers for all five posts you see that another 39 winners or 39% of all winners comes from this group. Going one step further by totalling the two tables we find that 88 of the 109 winners or 81% came from posts #1 thru #10. From a handicappers point of view I find it very intriguing that only one horse Friesan Fire has single digit morning line odds.

Now let’s breakdown post positions #11 thru #15.

There’s the morning line favorite stuck in the 13 hole with a history of 3/109=3% past winners. Doing the same math as we did previously we find that if past history holds up there is a 94% chance that the winner is in one of these three tables. Of course not all of the 109 races sampled had full fields but I believe you can still use these numbers to include or toss a horse in your exotics. In reality #15 Dunkirk should be in our final table but more about that after we compile stats for PP#16 thru #20.

The reason I mentioned that Dunkirk should perhaps be in the previous table is that he will be joining these last five in what is called the auxillary gate. A second starting gate which is used in racing when more than 14 entries are taken in a given race. This causes there to be an abnormal space between the #14 and the #15 post positions. Long to be considered a big disadvantage by owners, jockeys and trainers recent history has seen the connections gravitate towards taking these outside posts. My statistics show that since 1974 nine Kentucky Derby winners have come from the auxiallary gate including four in the last ten years and considering there was NO auxillary gate in 2006 and 2007 this seems to no longer be an obstacle. My records also show that a total of 120 horses have been loaded into the auxillary gate sine 1974 nineteen have finished in the money or 16%. Now if you love a horse who drew an outside post don’t let me or any of these numbers scare you off wagering on him. I have watched and bet on over fifty Run for the Roses and as a rule the fastest horse that avoids trouble is usually the winner. The latter is more easily said than done when a field of twenty young three year old colts and gelding hook up for the most exciting two minutes in sports.

A Bettor Approach, Horseracing, Triple Crown The Wiz takes a look at the history of post position in the Kentucky Derby