Wizofodds.com

Defense Wins Super Bowls But What If?

Neither team plays defense. With the over under total hovering between 55 and 57 (the highest ever in Super Bowl history) the boys in Vegas obviously think we are in for a shoot out come Sunday. The public must agree because the number keeps rising. I am not so sure I agree. First off I believe the Colts defense is better than they look and I believe the Saints know if they can run successfully they will keep the ball out of Manning’s hands and thus avoid the up and down the field game that Manning almost always wins.  Below is what I call my Super Bowl Leaning On Defense Chart:

Since 1970 teams sweeping all four categories have gone 14-3 (82%) straight up in the Super Bowl. Teams like this years edition of the Colts that have held a 3 to 1 edge in these categories have gone 12-8 (60%) straight up in the Super Bowl.  All the numbers above are close so I expect a lot of late action will come in on the Saints who have become America’s darlings but before you follow the sheep to the…..I thought you should know teams making their Super Bowl debut are 9-20 straight up and the last nineteen went 6-12-1 against the number. Thanks for listening.

Uncategorized

Super Bowl Formula Points To Saints

Prior to the Pittsburgh Steelers defeating the Seattle Seahawks 21 to 10 in the 2006 Super I read an article in the LA Times written by Sam Farmer that used eleven indicators to determine which team will win the Super Bowl. Being the figure filbert I am I immediately began tracking this formula’s validity and comparing it with the ones that I use. The article claimed that the team which held the edge in most of the eleven categories had won the Super Bowl 29 of 38 years or 76% of the time. Denver’s Super Bowl XXXIII victory over Atlanta was not included because the indicators were 5-5-1. I must remind my readers that this impressive 76% win percentage is straight up and not against the spread. In 2006 the underdog Seahawks held a 6 to 5 edge over the Steelers but lost the game outright making this “Super” formula 29-10-1 (73%). In 2007 the Chicago Bears held a 7-3 edge over Peyton Manning and the Colts. We all watched Rex Grossman implode and hand the Lombardi Trophy to Tony Dungy and crew to post yet another “Super” formula loss making the new record 29-11-1 (71%). In 2008 the undefeated Patriots held an impressive 9 to 2 lead in indicators but lost outright to the New Yoek Giants dropping the “Super” formula winning percentage below 70% to 29-12-1 (69%). Last year the Steelers entered Super Bowl XLIII with an 8 to 3 edge in indicators and prevailed but not before the Arizona Cardinals pushed them to the brink of defeat. That puts the “Super” formula record at 30-12-1 or 71% success heading into February 7th’s clash between the Colts and the Saints. Below I have charted for you the indicators for each of the two teams:

So this year’s “Super” formula gives the Saints a 6 to 5 edge in the eleven indicators. The best current money line odds (Odds to win the game outright) I could find on those Saints in Las Vegas are +190 at the MGM Mirage. Meaning IF you wager $100 on New Orleans and IF they pull the upset you receive $290 back for a profit of $190.  Just remember before you plow down on Drew Brees & Company the “Super” formula has been WRONG three of the last four years. Thanks for listening.

Uncategorized

Every autumn I travel to Las Vegas to play the Super Bowl futures and I have been relatively successful following a simple formula of throwing out last year’s winner as well this year’s favorite and lastly not accepting less than 5 to 1 odds.  Last fall I wagered 100 units on the Colts at 8 to1 and the Giants at 7 to 1 to WIN the Super Bowl. I also put 50 units on the Saints at 9 to 1 odds and the Broncos at 30 to 1. Half of my original investment of 300 units is now gone (Giants 100/Broncos 50). I also wagered 20 units on the New York Jets at 32 to 1 during a holiday trip between Christmas and New Years. I ordinarily do not wager on any team that late into the season but the fact that this year’s Jets allowed the fewest points and the fewest yards during the regular season caught my attention because my records show that 5 of the last 8 teams (63%) to accomplish that feat WON the Super Bowl. So my total investment is 320 units as we head into Championship weekend and I have three live teams. Below I have computed my ROI (return on investment) on all four remaining potential Super Bowl participants.

Now this approach may not appeal to those who crave immediate action but I have found it to be a very interesting and profitable way to wager on the NFL season and I dedicate a good portion of my pro football bankroll to it. Given the fact that the NFL season lasts five months (September thru January) and I usually wager in early October the potential ANNUAL ROIs are really 750% should the Colts win, 423% if the Saints come marching home and 600% should the Jets shock the world once again in Miami. Yes, I am not kidding myself that the old gunslinger up in Minnesota has no chance to take the Vikings all the way but that is why they call this activity gambling. I indeed challenge anyone to top these annual rates of ROI in  either today’s CD or real estate markets. Now let’s take a statistical look at Sunday’s matchups:

AFC MATCHUP COLTS VS JETS

Historically Super Bowl teams play great defense and control both sides of the ground game. The chart above shows us that history is on the Jet’s side. The Colts were outrushed by almost 800 yards during the regular season while the Jets on the other hand nearly doubled their opponents ground game numbers. Turnovers which are key in every game become even more important when we reach the semi finals of the Super Bowl. The two teams had identical regular season plus one turnover ratios but when you look at the huge difference in offensive philosophy with the Colt’s wide open attack versus the Jets close to the vest running attack  you must ask yourself are the two plus one numbers equal. I personally don’t think so. The next number is also very telling. The Colt’s defense recorded 21 more sacks than their offensive counterparts gave up while the Jets were a measely +2 in the same category. This could be the difference maker in the AFC Championship game. Manning has an uncanny ability to know when to get rid of the ball while Sanchez although he has been great in the playoffs he did have several miserable days during the regular season. I expect the Colts to throw everything at the rookie QB early and if he survives the initial onset than the Jets have a chance for the road victory. On the other hand if this were the seventh game of the World Series who would you rather have on the mound? Peyton Manning with his 99.9 QB rating or Rookie Sanchez and his 63.0 passing efficiency on the road in the loud fan unfriendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium? If the Jets pull it off Rex Ryan and crew will be the fan darlings of Super Bowl XLV.

NFC MATCHUP SAINTS VS VIKINGS

When I look at this matchup I think of my childhood days when the only thing on television were old westerns like Wyatt Earp and Gunsmoke. The plots were not very complicated and the nightly episodes usually ended with two of the town’s fastest quick draw experts facing off in the middle of main street with the whole town looking on. Well Sunday night I see the Saints-Vikings game going the same route. Look at the two QB ratings in the chart above. The bset of the old versus the best of the new. This game should be fun to watch. I don’t believe either team can afford to play it close to the vest so it should be bombs away in the Bayou. The Vikings looked like world beaters taking out the Cowboys last weekend but there is one Viking game that I can’t get out of mind. It was the Monday night game played on December 28th. I happened to be in the sports book at the Wynn Resort in Vegas when these same Vikings traveled to Chicago and lost in overtime 36-30 to the lowly Bears. Giving up 36 points to the BEARS?? No game better illustrates the fact that the Vikings are a far different team when they hit the road. Although they went 8-0 at home they were a mere 4-4 on the road. Now they travel to New Orleans to face a team that is completely healthy for the first time since summer camp. Add in the fact that Reggie Bush has finally figured out he needs to run straight ahead instead of sideways to be successful in the NFL and maybe just maybe the new young gun will still be standing after Sunday’s last draw. Thanks for listening.

A Bettor Approach, NFL

As we close in on the start of the 2009 football season I like to remind my readers that this handicapping game is a marathon not a sprint. On Thursday, September 3rd the collge games begin followed the very next Thurday with opening night of the long NFL season. I am very often asked why I don’t grade my selections and call them 4 or 5 star picks or give them catchy names like SEC Upset of the Week. Well my answer has always been that it is tough enough to pick more winners than losers let alone trying to assign each game a grade or preference. Having said that one word of advice I always give my subscirbers at this time of year is to practice good money management. I thought I would take this week to discuss my approach to money management and perhaps it will give each of you some useable ideas on the subject.

1) Determine the breakdown and size of your bankroll BEFORE the season begins.

This is not a decision you want to make in the heat of battle!! If you do so while on a bad losing streak what are the chances you are going to make a rational decision? Doing so while on a winning streak can also be costly because at that point in the game of picking winners looks easy. I persinally like to break my football bankroll into three parts. Part One I call Futures is what I am willing to risk on a team or teams to capture either the BCS Championship or the Super Bowl . If you like to be play the overs and unders on regular season wins or some other exotic wager that takes most of the season to determine the outcome than I would include that in Part One of my football bankroll. I don’t know why but I seem to derive a lot more pleasure making and following these types of wagers than most players. To me there is nothing more enjoyable than having the right team at a big number on Championship day. Part Two of my bankroll I call the Regular Season  Money. Some people prefer to divide their college and NFL bankrolls but to me I want to know how I did for the weekend and it doesn’t matter if “show me the money” comes on Saturday or Sunday or even Monday. Bottom line to me is did I win? Part Three of the bankroll I call the Post Season money. These funds are set aside to bet on the college bowl games and NFL playoffs including the Super Bowl. So many people arrive at the post season busted or cut off by their man. That has never made any sense to me because I have always found that the college bowls offer great value and the NFL’s road to the Super Bowl is the most exciting  part of the professional season. Now let’s take a look at the size of each part of the bankroll. My rule of thumb is to never wager anymore than I feel comfortable losing. Forget chasing the big score because that kind of thought process will get you hammered most likely sooner than later. Once you have determined how much you can afford to lose for the season than determine in your mind which wagers bring you the most entertainment value for your dollar. If you are undecided then split your bankroll in three and let this year’s results determine next year’s percentages. If you are not making these kind of decisions NOW than the odds are not good that you are going to have a successful wagering season. I have always believed that betting on sports should be looked on as a way of spending part of your entertainment budget thus I have always wanted a good bang for my buck.

2) How much should I bet on a game?

I hear this one a lot during the season. I have read many books on money management and have tested numerous theories and complicated formulas and I have found nothing that works better  than just using good old common sense. Personally I never wager more than 10% on any one event and if you follow this premise you will automatically be wagering more when you are winning and less when you are losing which is just what you should be doing. The sad part is that most people do just the opposite. Remember this is a marathon and you need to grind the house down. The books like nothing more than for you to plow down on one “lock” game and come away a loser. Such actions usually lead to a shark like feeding frenzy and we all know that the house almost always wins in this situation. Also avoid wagering on any game just because it is televised in your area or making a larger than normal wager because it is this week’s BIG game. Why do you suppose Vegas has come up with all those crazy proposition bets on the Super Bowl? The answer is easy because they know the public wants as much action as they can get on this game. If you have ever been in Sin City for a Super Bowl than I am sure you have heard the constant chatter in the sports books about the “good” prop bets everyone thinks they have made. I have never understood how anyone could be on the right side of the most watched game in the world and still go home a loser because he or she got suckered into making a bunch of uneducated guesses on prop lines. The casinos rely on such behavior.

3) Trips to Vegas or Delaware are STILL part of your bankroll!!

It is only human nature that you will make more wagers on sporting events when you are somewhere like Las Vegas on a football weekend so therefore set aside a LITTLE extra for that special weekend but if you noticed I capitalized LITTLE. Remind yourself that what you win or lose on such a trip should be added or subtracted from your season’s bankroll. Many times over the years clients have asked me to leave my selections on their cell phones while they are enjoying a weekend in the desert and evn if WE come out ahead they come home with losing stories. Just because you are somewhere where you can wager on everything that moves doesn’t mean you should.

4) Write down EVERY wager you make.

I can tell you what wagers I made as far back as August 1984 to include who I bet on, how much I wagered and what the end result was. I ALWAYS write down EVERY wager I make and have FOREVER. Why lie to yourself? If you don’t practice this simple activity you are doomed for failure. It is only human nature to remember the good hits and profitable days and to conveniently forget or have vague memories of those dark days. Name one other activity you would continue to do without experiencing any success. Writing every bet down seems a little childish but try it for just one football season and you might be surprised at your own behavior. I also include WHY I wagered on or against a team which I find helpful when analyzing the inevitable winning and losing streaks. In conclusion I by no means have all the answers about money management and sports wagering but if you pick up just one of the habits I have talked about here today or enforce on yourself some of the boundaries mentioned than I have done my job of giving you A Bettor Approach!!!

A Bettor Approach, College Football, Football, NFL, Sports Betting Prioritizing Plays is Tricky Business

I have been wagering on NFL games for over forty years and during that time I have read many articles from other handicappers who claim they have some magical formula for predicting the NFL preseason games at a higher percentage than they do during the regular season. Does that really make sense? In most of these games the coaching staff doesn’t even know EXACTLY what they are going to be able to accomplish in their team’s first LIVE action against real competitors so how can anyone really know whether they are going to cover a point spread.  What I will do this week is share with you a few betting trends that I have had at least a 60% success rate with in preseason wagering.

1) Bet ON a team playing it’s second preseason game against a team that is playing it’s first. This one needs very little explanation. It only makes sense that a team with a game under it’s belt will be more prepared to make a good showing versus one that is just getting started.

2) Bet the Jets versus the Giants. Motivation is the key here. The Jets will always be NYC’s NFL step child despite Willie Joe’s accomplishments so it only makes sense that the Jets are much more motivated to beat their rivals in every preseason contest.

3) Since 1989 it has paid to go against the previous year’s Super Bowl winner.  Everyone knows about the big game hangover that occurrs almost every year and why wait until the regular season to cash in on it.

4) Play ON a team if they were shut out in their previous preseason contest.

5) Bet ON Bill Belichick when his team is the underdog. This one cashed last night as the Patriots whipped the Eagles as a 3 point underdog.

6) Bet ON a Tom Coughlin coached team in their final preseason game.

I am very confident that if you follow these half dozen guidelines when betting this year’s NFL preseason that you will avoid the pitfalls that put many a pundit deep in the hole weeks before the regular season even starts. Thanks for listening.

A Bettor Approach, Football, NFL, Sports Betting The Wiz thinks maybe sitting out the practice games might be a good idea

a bunch of hypocrytes!!! After failing in the courtroom to block the state of Delaware from accepting wagers on single college football games during the 2009 season and beyond the talking heads that run college sports got even by dictating that any state accepting wagers on single games will not be allowed to host a championship game of any kind. These are the same people who take African American kids out of the ghetto pay them nothing and make billions off their ability to play sports and then kick them to the curb after their four years of eligibility has ended. This is all done under the guise that the kids are rewarded with a college education. I won’t even go into graduation rates!!! These are the same individuals who claim adding a twelfth game to the regular NCAA football season is not in the best interest of the student athlete. Get real!! Florida quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow is only taking one course this whole  year much like USC’s Matt Leinart did his senior year. The real reason they don’t want to start adding games is that it might lead to a much wanted playoff system which would interrupt the current way the cash flows back to these people in charge. When college head coaches are paid $4 million per year by these same people are we to believe there is no money in college sports? Hypocrytes!!!!!

On a lighter note it is much more fun to hear what these same head coaches are saying and thinking this time of the year especially when the USA Today Top 25 Coaches’ Poll is released as the 2009 edition was yesterday.  The reason I am so interested is that I like to check my college football future tickets for accuracy with the coaches’ opinions. Since the inception of the current BCS formula for determining the NCAA football champion the coaches’ opinions have been fairly accurate.  I have broken down in the chart below where the eventual champion was ranked in the USA Preseason Poll since the BCS system started in 1998.

It appears the coaches were mildly surprised in 2002 (#12) and again in 2003 (#15) and very surprised in 2000 (#20) but over the lasr five years they have been able to point to the eventual champion with a great deal of accuracy. Below I have charted the range results percentage wise:

6 of 11 Champions (55%) have been ranked in the top 5 in the Coaches’ preseason poll.

Adding two more champions mkaes it 8 of 11 (73%) that were in the top ten in the preseason poll including all five of the last champions. So now let’s take a look at the coaches’ top ten for this year:

Based on the past it would appear that my large bet on Texas at 6/1 and a smaller wager on Penn State at 35/1 both have a very good chance to be in the hunt and maybe just maybe I will be interested in January’s second Rose Bowl game of January 2010. Since all eleven previous champions were ranked in the top twenty in the preseason poll it appears my wagers on Notre Dame (#23) at 28/1 and BYU (#24) at 250/1 are probably losers but what happens if the Cougars upset Oklahoma in Arlington, Texas on September 5th which I believe could very well happen. Then what do you think their odds will be? That’s what makes these futures bets so much fun and sometimes profitable. One thing we do know is that at least we can count on the coaches being closer to right than their bosses. Thanks for listening!!

A Bettor Approach, College Football, Sports Betting NCAA Presidents are a Bunch of Hypocrytes

When I was in Las Vegas week before last I had a mild interest in wagering on a few NFL team regular season win totals. I have charted below both the AFC and NFC 2009 numbers from a Lucky’s Race and Sports Book:

I took the Lions and over 5 at +135. The public is very down on Detroit right now so being the contrarian I am I went the other way. I also took the Eagles over 9 1/2 and laid -135. I believe if McNabb stays healthy they will be a Super Bowl contender which means at least a 10 win season. The last NFC team I wagered on was Tampa Bay to win under 6 games at odds of +120. Total amount wagered $335 to possibly win $355.  Now let’s take a look at the AFC.

I wagered on five AFC teams including 3 overs and 2 unders. My first pick is the Bengals over 6 1/2 wins at -115. I can’t believe the oddsmakers have Cincy at the same win total as the woeful Browns. My next over is the Chiefs at even money to win more than 6 games. I like the changes KC made in the offseason. Putting Matt Cassel at the offensive controls will make this squad one of this year’s surprises. The last over I took was on the Chargers at -105 to win more than 10 games. It is now or never for this group and I look for them to avoid last year’s sluggish start and 11 wins is not out of the question for this bunch.  Everybody loves last year’s surprise team the Miami Dolphins but I am taking the under 7 wins at -110. I love the Tuna and his organizational skills but I believe this group may get caught reading last year’s headlines. I am also going against another public team the New York Jets. I am taking +120 and the under 7 wins. In the AFC I have wagered $530 to possibly win $520. Just as in the NFC I have held the juice to a minimum which I believe is key to making money on these wagers. Either way these bets should take up a very small amount of your regular season NFL bankroll. I will have a lot of fun with these picks but I have never ever bet any serious money on this type of futures because a lot can happen over a seventeen week season.

A Bettor Approach, Football, NFL, Sports Betting Betting NFL Win Totals

I am never ceased to be amazed at the creativity the books in Las Vegas use to relieve the uninformed tourist of his money. I thought this week I would share with you some of those “creative” wagers that were available last week when I was in Sin City. Let’s start with one that I saw at Lucky’s sportsbooks which now includes Primm at Stateline and the old Union Plaza downtown.

Which Group Will Produce The 2009-2010 Super Bowl Champion

I think the only value in playing this wager is if you like the Super Bowl favorite New England Patriots who were listed around town at anywhere from 3/1 to 4 1/2 to 1 odds to win the 2010 NFL Championship. The only problem is that after Brady’s bunch, the Saints and Falcons Group #1 offers absolutely no value. Interestingly enough Group #4 which includes both of last year’s Super Bowl participants has the highest odds at +300. The books have also included two of “America’s” Teams (Cowboys and Packers) in this group so it appears to me they are trying to sucker the public into laying the wood on this group. In my opinion the odds are not fair to the bettor on ANY group. Now let’s take a look at the next off the wall proposition bet being offered by the Vegas bookmakers.

Will ANY NFL team win 13 or more games during the 2009 regular season: YES ODDS -400    NO ODDS +320

Will ANY TWO NFL teams win 13 or more games during the 2009 regular season: YES ODDS -130  NO ODDS EVEN

Will ANY NFL team LOSE 13 or more games during the 2009 regular season: YES ODDS +375  NO ODDS -475

Will ANY TWO NFL teams LOSE 13 or more games during the 2009 regular season: YES ODDS -145  NO ODDS +115

The YES on one team winning 13 or more is the way to go but laying $400 to win $100 is ridiculous. If you think the Lions will continue their futility into the 2009 season than +375 looks inviting on them to lose 13 or more.

The next proposition wager is called Peyton versus Eli. Who will win more regular season games. Peyton is posted at +105 and Eli at -125. The sheet also states that “Both must start the first regular season game for there to be action. There is no explanation as to what happens if either or both are injured or unable to “start” or “play” in all 16 games. It seems to me the books have left a lot of wriggle room in this one and when the wriggling starts in that town the bettor almost always comes out on the short end.

The last sucker I mean creative proposition wager I saw was the most regular season wins by Florida NFL Teams versus California based NFL Teams. The Florida teams are getting a 1/2 game win and are listed as +130 underdogs. The California teams are laying a 1/2 game win and are posted at -150. I will save you some research time on this one and let you know it is the Raiders, Chargers and 49ers versus the Dolphins, Jaguars and Buccaneers. Might be a fun wager between friends living in those two states but I think you would have to be a little crazed to put any serious money on this one. In fact you are much better off saving your NFL bankroll for betting games straight up or versus the money line when the season starts in September. All of these props are nothing more than gimmick bets to relieve the uneducated visitor  of some of his loose change. Don’t bite!! Thanks for listening.

A Bettor Approach, Football, NFL, Sports Betting Add new tag, The Wiz takes at creative NFL futures bets available in Las Vegas

I spent last Wednesday and Thursday in beautiful Las Vegas where the temperatures hovered in the 100 to 115 degree range. I heard one news reporter state that temperatures inside a car with the windows rolled up could reach 143 in a matter of minutes.  Nice weather to go shopping for the best odds on a football game that will not be played until on January 7th, 2010. I have been doing this drill for 35+ years and I must say that I hope the recent legalization of sports wagering in the State of Delaware is a prelude to the same for the rest of the country. Maybe I should write the Govenator a letter and point out to him the amount of revenue that is deposited day in and day out into the Nevada coffers by Californians. As I walked from casino to casino first in downtown Las Vegas and then on the famed Strip I couldn’t help but ask myself “Why can’t there be an easier way?” With the NFL threatening to sue the state of Delaware causing yet another delay in making nationwide sports wagering legal and with me being well into the back nine of my life I still have nightmares that the day this mad prohibition comes to an end will be the same day I get checked into an Autum of your Life Alzheimer’s Clinic. Despite the heat I still enjoy gathering the numbers and squeezing the absolute best number I can get out of the boys who run the mega sports books in Las Vegas. This year was no exception so let me share with you this year’s journey.

I first stopped at Stateline and gathered BCS and NFL odds for the upcoming season. Then it was on to downtown where the temperature had already reached 97 degrees at 10:00 in the morning. To my dismay the sheet and the odds at the Union Plaza were now identical to those at Stateline. Just another  sign that the discrepancy in futures odds between casinos is disappearing. In the old days every casino was different and many times the difference was huge. The age of computers and casino property mergers has done in the old ways and methods that were used to post these numbers. The next morning I parked at the old Tropicana and gathered the BCS and NFL odds from numerous Strip properties. Below I have charted the fifteen schools that I believe have the best chance of showing up at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena in January. I have also listed the lowest and the higest odds I found for each team.

Obviously defending Champion Florida deserves their favortism because of the return of QB Tim Tebow along with six other offensive starters and the return of all 2007 defensive starters. But not so fast!!! Although I cashed on last year’s edition of the Gators any regular reader of this space knows that when betting the futures the first thing this handicapper does is throw out the defending champ. Why? Since 1936 only 11 times (11/73=15%) has a team repeated as Champion.  Given those odds I would hesitate to take the Pittsburgh Steelers in this situation at odds of only 2/1. Plus if they MAKE the Championship game you can then bet them at these low odds THEN instead of NOW. So who did I play? My big wager went on the Longhorns of Texas.  They feel they got jobbed last year after beating Oklahoma and instead of playing for the Championship they went to the Fiesta Bowl. They have 16 returning starters including QB Colt McCoy who has one of the few arms that can match Tebow and company should they play on January 10th. The 6/1 odds fall within my parameters of 5/1 or better on any futures wager. Although my main wager is on Texas I also placed smaller wagers om three other “longshots” that I believe have a chance to make a run at Pasadena at juicy odds. Let’s start with Penn State at odds of 35/1. They have solid talent and a remarkably weak schedule for a BCS school. I believe Ohio State and Michigan are going to slip a little and with no Big Ten Championship Game the Nittany Lions might be undefeated come December which would probably put them in Pasadena. My next longshot play is on the Irish of Notre Dame. Yesterday one of my best friends on this earth and a lifelong Irsih supporter dropped by for a visit. When I told him I had just returned from Vegas where I had placed a wager on Notre Dame at 28/1 he was astonished to say the least. Their schedule is very weak and I believe they have a very successful season ahead of them under third year QB Jimmy Clausen. The last team I wagered on will draw a few laughs I am sure. That team is BYU at odds of 250/1. What happens if they upset Oklahoma on September 5th  in Arlington, Texas and then run the table to an undefeated season? Boise State beat Oklahoma why can’t BYU? If the Cougars end up the only or one of two undefeated squads how much pressue would the BCS be under to put them into the Rose Bowl? Probably not likely but at 250/1 I am willing to take a shot. I am really looking forward to the beginning of football season and now I have a little something extra to root for. Thanks for listening.

A Bettor Approach, College Football, Football, Sports Betting The Wiz is back from Vegas with this year's BCS future tickets

On Tuesday night Major League Baseball will be playing their 80th All Star Game at Busch Stadium in St Louis to determine which league will have home field advantage in next October’s Fall Classic. Can you imagine if the Super Bowl was played at one team’s home stadium based on the results of the Pro Bowl? That’s another discussion for a different day. I heard on a radio sports talk show yesterday a talking head going on and on about how the American League lineup was far superior and that they were going to put a world of hurt on the National League. Of course being the ultimate contrarian it makes me like the National League at “home” with the league’s best player (Albert Pujols) even feeling more at home.  This week I would like to analyze betting the midsummer classic from a different angle. Let’s start by looking at the total number of runs scored in the past 79 contests and perhaps we will come up with a betting strategy for this year’s game. Below I have charted the number of times totals have come since the first game was played in 1933 (Remember there were two All Star Games played in both 1960 and 1961).

Interestingly enough 8 runs and 9 runs are tied for the two most common totals for the All Star Game with 7 runs being a close runnerup. The average for the 79 games comes out to 8.46 runs per game. In 44 of the 79 contests (56%) the two teams combined for 8 runs or less. In 35 of the games (44%) the total landed on 9 runs or more.  Now let’s look at the last ten contests in the chart below:

In only 18 of 79 All Star Games  (23%) have the two teams scored a dozen or more runs and four of those occurred in the last ten years (2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005). There was a total of 92 runs scored in these ten games for an average of 9.2 runs per game almost 3/4 of a run higher than the average for all 79 games. So now let’s take it one step further and go back ten more years:

Wow, four more double digit games (1992,1993,1994 and 1998) and a whopping total of 98 runs scored in the ten games for an average of 9.8 runs per game.  If you add the two last decades together you get a total of 190 runs or 9.5 runs per game which is over one run higher than the average for all games. Clearly the All Star contest has become a higher scoring affair over the last two decades. The total for the game next Tuesday has yet to be posted but hopefully these stats will help you make a decision whether to go over or under. Either way it is a fun way to play the All Star Game that I have enjoyed over the years. Thanks for listening.

A Bettor Approach, MLB, Sports Betting Next Tuesday's All Star Game is bettable