Dual Qualifiers Still Interest Me
Call me stubborn or call me stupid but I am still not ready to let go of the Dual Qualifier theory for picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby. A week from Saturday as many as twenty three year olds will load into the gate at Churchill Downs for the most important race of their young lives. Some will be yearlings that cost their owners millions of dollars and others will be running in company well above what their price tag predicted. That is what makes the Kentucky Derby so special. I recently read a book entitled The Homerun Horse which documents the bidding process and the massive amounts of money that owners spend in an attempt to own a winner of America’s most famous horse race. Now I am not usually into recomending books but if you are an avid horse player and a fan of the American Triple Crown this one is a must read.
Now most horse players have their own tried and proven handicapping methods and I am not one into trying to change people’s minds at the betting windows but at least if you are going to be wagering on this year’s Derby take a closer look at these five three year old colts I have listed below in alphabetical order:
CHOCOLATE CANDY-Northern California based horse owned by diet mogul Jenny Craig has been chasing Pioneer of the Nile and I Want Revenge since he finished third behind them in last December’s Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park. He came up one length short against Bob Baffert’s Pioneer again this month in the Santa Anita Derby. The key here is that back in December he was ridden by Rafael Bejarano and this month his connections switched to Joel Rosario. Now I have the opportunity to watch both of these fine young riders on a daily basis but neither is tabbed to ride him in Louisville. That privilege has been handed to Mike Smith. Yes, the same Mr Smith that guided Giacomo home back in 2005 to the tune of $102.60 for every $2.00 wagered on him to win. Is the switch to Smith worth one length? This handicapper thinks so.
I WANT REVENGE-This one figures to battle Florida Derby winner Quality Road for Kentucky Derby 135 favortism based on his humongus effort in the Wood Memorial. He finished second to Pioneer of the Nile by a nose in the previous mentioned Cash Call Futurity and was beaten a length and a half by the same in February’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes. He was then shipped to New York where he won the Wood and the Gotham in a four week span. Joseph Talamo, another young talented Southern California based rider has been aboard in all four starts and has been tabbed by trainer Jeff Mullins to be up again on May 3rd. Talamo’s lack of experience could be a factor on how this one finishes but I came away very impressed with his ride in the Wood.
PIONEER OF THE NILE-All this one does is WIN but yet there are several others that have garnered all the attention. On top of that look who is back in the Derby limelight? Bob Baffert that’s who. If anyone doubts ”Whitey’s” ability to get a horse ready to run a 1 1/4 on the first Saturday in May just check the replays of the 2002 (War Emblem), 1998 (Real Quiet) and 1997 (Silver Charm) Derbies. You might also take a gander at the 1996 replay when Baffert’s Cavonnier was beaten a nose by Grindstone. So doing the math Baffert trained entries have won 3 of the past 12 Derbis or 25% and just missed 4 out of 13. Veteran jockey Garret Gomez has been aboard in his victories in the Cash Call Futurity, the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, the San Felipe and the Santa Anita Derby. I trust a rider of his quality and experience has had plenty of opportunities to catch a different ride in Louisville but this “Just Win Baby” obviously is his top choice.
SQUARE EDDIE-This one finished second in the San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita back in January then went on the shelf for three months with a cannon bone injury. He finished third last week in his comebacker in the Lexington Stakes and although I have a great deal of respect for his trainer Doug O’Neill and even more for his rider Edgar Prado of Barbaro fame I think Mr Reddam his owner may be driven more by ego than by common horse sense. Prado’s switch this week to Dunkirk a horse that did not run as a two year old (No Derby winner has done so since Appollo in 1882) tells us what Prado thinks of “Eddie’s” chances in Louisville. Corey Nakatani picks up the mount. So what!!
WEST SIDE BERNIE-This horse has slipped into the Derby under most pundits radar despite losing the Wood to I Want Revenge by only 1 1/2 lenghts. He took last year’s Kentucky Cup Juvenile by three lengths and finished sixth in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile at odds of 19 to 1. He then disappeared for almost five months before resurfacing in the Lane’s End where he was a soundly beaten sixth place finisher with Edgar Prado aboard. When he showed up for the Wood Prado chose to ride Imperial Council instead so Stewart Elliot took the call. Now jockeys are notorius poor handicappers but it appears Mr Prado has chosen Dunkirk over this one as well. Enoough said.
Now you might ask why I have zeroed in on these five charges and the answer is very simple. They are all Dual Qualifiers. These horses are a select group that own a Dosage Index of 4.00 or lower. DI is a mathematical index developed by Dr Steve Romans that quantifies a horses’ ability to negotoate 1 1/4 miles. According to his theory, a horse with a DI of 4.00 or under has the in-bred ability to handle the Derby distance. A Dual Qualifier is also weighted within 10 pounds of the top 2 year-olds in the Experimental Weights which is a ranking of the top Derby candidates based on their two year old campaigns. Before you turn your nose up let me tell you these DQs have captured 20 of the last 30 (67%) Derbies. Maybe that’s why I am STILL intersted in DUAL QUALIFIERS.
Stat of the Day: Dual Qualifiers have won 2/3 of the last 30 Derbies but have represented only 21% of the total entries.
A Bettor Approach, Horseracing, Sports Betting, Triple Crown