Betting Final Four Is As Simple As 1,1,2,3
It seems like this year’s edition of March Madness has flown by but I think everything seems to go faster the older you get. Just ask two of this year’s Final Four head coaches Tom Izzo and Jim Calhoun who have been at their schools 14 years and 23 years respectively. If you recall in last week’s Stat of the Day I told you that 7 of the last 9 champions (78%) were led by a head man that had been at the school for at least ten years. The current odds on U Conn are 9 to 5 and the Spartans are 4 to 1 and I believe either team is capable of running the table in Detroit this weekend. UNC is the heavy favorite at 10 to 11 odds and Villanova is listed at the same 4 to 1 number as Michigan State. The public will be betting on both favorites on Saturday but history tells us that since 1985 in the Final Four the teams with fewer wins have won 23 of 48 times STRAIGHT UP!!! A quick look at the current money line odds on Michigan State (+155) and Villanova (+220) makes a wager on BOTH teams look very inviting. Below I have listed some trends about wagering on the Final Four I have kept track of since 1991:
1) Betting ON teams getting 7 or more points has gone 8-1 (89%) against the number. Villanova.
2) Betting AGAINST teams who have covered in all four previous tournament games has gone 14-4 (78%) against the number. Michigan State and Villanova.
3) Betting AGAINST any team coming off two straight up underdog wins has gone 7-2 (78%) against the number. UNC.
4) Betting ON #1 seeds when playing against non #1 seeds has gone 12-6 (67%) against the number. UNC and U Conn.
Yes, as you can see the numbers conflict each other which suggests to me that the two dogs are alive and well and may do some considerable barking at Ford Field on Saturday.
Stat of the Day: If Villanova upsets UNC on Saturday they will become the 17th team to reach the Championship game after defeating the Tar Heels. 8 of the previous 16 (50%) went on to win the Championship. Shades of 1985?
A Bettor Approach, College Basketball, March Madness, Sports Betting