Kobe Versus The King?
With six weeks left in the regular season the Lakers are the favorites to win the NBA title at +155 at www.BetEd.com followed by Boston and Cleveland who are posted at 3/1. If you are looking for a long shot perhaps you will find San Antonio (8/1), Orlando (14/1) or Denver (28/1) more inviting. After doing my March 1st NBA stats update I have decided to let my futures ticket on the Cavs ride. Let me share with you my thinking on the upcoming NBA playoffs. Let’s start with each team’s current point differetial:
| TEAM | POINT DIFFERENTIAL |
| Cleveland | 1.11 |
| Boston | 1.10 |
| Los Angeles | 1.08 |
| Orlando | 1.07 |
| San Antonio | 1.04 |
| Denver | 1.03 |
Now you might ask why I have focused on JUST these six teams. Well the answer is simple they are the top three ranked teams in each conference but more importantly I am looking for a team with at least a 1.07 point differential. Since 1985 the eventual NBA champion has AVERAGED that number. The lowest regular season point differential during that time frame was 1.02 when the Houston Rockets and MVP Hakeem Olajuwan swept the Orlando Magic in the 1995 finals. Interestingly enough the highest differential for a champion came the very next year when Michael Jordan posted a 1.13 regular season number and then beat the Seattle Supersonics 4 games to 2 in the Finals. Last year the Celtics held a 1.11 to 1.07 advantage over the Lakers. Nothing about sports wagering is written in stone but having some sort of guidelines for eliminating the pretenders can be very helpful. Let’s take a look at some of the other parameters I use to determine the eventual champion.
NBA Champions are usually ranked in the top four point differentials. In fact 27 of the last 30 (90%) champions were.
NBA Champions average at least 100 points a game. A true fact 24 of the last 30 (80%)years. As of March 1st only San Antonio fell below that magical century mark by averaging only 97.42 points per game.
NBA Champions are usually ranked in the top two in road wins. 23 of the last 30 (77%) champions did so. As of Thursday the Celtics lead the league with 23 road wins with Cleveland, Orlando and Los Angeles tied with 21. The Spurs have 20 but the Nuggets by owning a 17-15 road record are looking more and more like the biggest pretenders on our list.
NBA Champions are usually in the top two in regular season wins. In fact 50 of the last 61 (82%) champions owned that distinguishment. This year the Lakers at 49 wins have a one game lead on the Celtics and Cavs who are both at 48 wins. It appears the top two regular season records this year will be coming out of this threesome with Orlando having 44, San Antonio 40 and Denver with only 39.
Maybe the Lakers will get a rematch against the Celtics this June but my gut tells me this is the Cav’s year. I have been most impressed with LeBron and company during crunch time this season. Either way there I predict much more competitive Finals and if Kobe and the King hook up it could be one for the ages. Thanks for listening and let’s chat again soon.
Stat of the Day: Over the last twenty-four years the team coming into the NBA Finals with the better regular season point differential has gone 13-8 (62%) while in 1988, 1993 and 2003 both teams came in with the same number.