Super Bowl XLIII Up For Grabs
I can’t remember a more wide open race for the Super Bowl and the current odds from the Hilton reflect just that. Let’s take a look at the numbers for WINNING the 43rd edition of the only game that stops all of America:
AFC NFC
Steelers 4/1 Giants 9/4
Titans 6/1 Panthers 7/1
Colts 10/1 Eagles 10/1
Ravens 10/1 Falcons 15/1
Chargers 15/1 Vickings 15/1
Dolphins 30/1 Cardinals 60/1
Other than the Cardinals I could make an argument for any of the teams above to get on a roll and MAKE the Super Bowl but the wager is to WIN not just get there. If you are a regular reader of this space than you know I wagered on the Titans back in September to win the AFC at 6/1 and to WIN the Super Bowl at 12/1 and I have not seen or heard anything from all the talking heads that has changed my mind. In fact I am sure I feel much like the Titans do. Confident but satisfied to slip into the playoffs under the radar. This is a team who just two weeks back whacked the Super Bowl favorite Steelers with home field advantage at stake and with two defensive standouts sitting on the sidelines. The last twenty-four Super Bowl winners averaged a 1.68 regular season point differential and Tennessee is the only team even close to that number this year. Let’s take a look at all twelve playoff team differentials:
Titans 1.60
Ravens 1.58
Steelers 1.56
Giants 1.45
Eagles 1.44
Colts & Chargers 1.27
Panthers 1.26
Falcons 1.20
Vikings 1.14
Dolphins 1.09
Cardinals 1.00
The numbers show there are no stand out teams this year so I am happy to be on the team that has been the most consistent for the entire season. Their +14 in turnovers led the NFL for most of the season until the Dolphins passed them with a +17 in week seventeen. Their +32 in sacks is also by far the best in the league and I believe points to a team that controls the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Jeff Fisher’s bunch went 7-1 at home this year and that’s where they will be playing both of their playoff games and the extra week of rest will help with injuries. There are plenty of dangerous teams in the AFC with the Steelers and Ravens topping the list. They both sport Super Bowl caliber defenses and have team leaders with “big” game experience.
Then you have the red hot Colts and Chargers who come in with impressive winning streaks and better quarterbacks than the Titans. I even believe the Dolphins are a real darkhorse candidate to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. They were 6-2 on the road this year and I was imprssed with the sound beating they laid on the Pats in Foxboro. Could Parcells & company pull a stunner? On the NFC side I believe it will be one of three teams either the defending champion Giants, the Panthers or the Donovan McNabb and the Philadelphia Eagles. Of the three only the Giants have a winning road record (5-3) while the Panthers (4-4) and the Eagles (3-4-1) struggled on the road.
Another interesting stat that points to the Giants is that only four Super Bowl winning teams have come back and won more games in the season following their championship than they did the year they won it. Three of those four teams repeated as champions. The Giants are the fifth such team. I believe the Titans and Giants will meet in Super Bowl XLIII and if anyone knows football is a game of inches it’s Jeff Fisher. Maybe he will be on the winning side of THAT game this time.Thanks for listening and let’s chat next Friday.