NFL’s Thanksgiving Day Schedule Is A Real Turkey!!!
My nephew is down from the Sacramento area to help celebrate the Thanksgiving holiday. We always like to have a few bucks riding on the Turkey Day games but this year’s schedule is a real dud so we decided to add in the one college game on tap Texas-Texas A&M. We are both required to pick a side in each game and then assign a grade from 1-4 for each pick with 4 being the top pick and 1 being our least favorite. The tiebreaker is the total points scored in the Aggies-Longhorns evening final. I thought I would share with you my thoughts and picks since none of the four games fit my 60%+ for games released to my paying customers.
Tennessee-11 versus Detroit
Titan’s lone weakness was exposed last weekend when they failed to adjust to the Jet’s hurry up offense and were constantly caught with the wrong personnel on the field. Thanksgiving morning they get a chance to make amends against the NFL’s worst team on a national television stage. The big number (+11) is tempting but the Lions have lost their last four Turkey Day games both straight up and against the spread by an average score of 33-13. New Lion QB Daunte Culpepper has thrown four interceptions in the last two games. Big advantage in turnover ratio as well with Titans+11 and Lions-7. Lions have a great chance to go 0-16. What a way to start Thanksgiving day laying 11 points in an NFL game.
Dallas-12 1/2 versus Seattle
I hope nobody delays dinner over this one because doing so could be grounds for divorce. Seattle’s lame duck headman Mike Holmgren probably can’t wait for this season to end. Seattle has been racked with injuries but Dallas has not fared much better with Tony Romo’s thumb still a big concern especially if you are laying 11 1/2 points. The Cowboys are 3-7 against the spread when laying double digits under HC Phillips while the Hawks are 7-2 against the spread when they are a dog of seven or more under Holmgren. I am taking the Seahawks and the 12 1/2 with the hopes that Hasselbeck and company can take advantage of the Cowboy’s leaky pass defense and keep it close. Cowboys are 2-5 against the number at home over their last seven. The public will be on the Cowboys and hopefully so will my nephew. I am taking the points.
Philadelphia-3 versus Arizona
A lot has been said this year about the failure of west coast teams showing up when traveling to the east coast and this game may be no exception. The Cardinals are a playoff team while the disappointing Eagles are under fire from the citizens of “Brotherly Love”. Donovan McNabb’s days in Philly are definitely over and Andy Reid may not be far behind him. Philly running back Westbrook’s status is once again up in the air so given that and all the turmoil in Philadelphia I will take the enthusiastic Cardinals and the three points.
Texas-35 versus Texas A&M
When this one kicks off 99% of the nation will be half asleep and under the influence of tryptophan which is probably a good thing. A&M has won the last two meetings outright and the last three against the spread. I would never lay 35 points in ANY football game but this is just a friendly contest between me and the nephew. The Aggies rank 113th in the nation in defense and have given up 35+ points in six of their seven Big 12 games. Colt McCoy is still in the running for the Heisman and the Longhorns still believe they need to win impressively to stay in the hunt for the BCS Championship. Don’t look for HC Mack Brown to call off the Horns when it starts getting ugly. Raucous home holiday crowd will be looking for Colt to keep firing until the very last play. I can’t believe I am saying this but I am going to lay the 35 big ones.
Now comes the tricky part. The ranking of my four picks. Those of you who know me well know that I am not into releasing 5 star and 4 star selections as do other sports services. It is my belief it is tough enough to pick winners in this game let alone say one pick is a “better” pick than the other. For the purposes of this sporting contest I will have to do so so let’s get it over with.
Tennessee-11 4 Points
Texas-35 3 Points
Arizona+3 2 Points
Seattle+12 1/2 1 Point
Tie Breaker 69 1/2 points in Texas-A&M
Thanks for listening and have a safe Thanksgiving!!!
Stat of the Day: Over the last twenty years the Lions are 13-7 (65%) against the number in their game AFTER Thanksgiving.