We All Know It Is Down To Sixteen Teams
I can’t go very many places this time of the year without someone asking “So who do you like?” Well an easy answer would be one of the sixteen top seeds. Since 1979, 16/30 (53%) eventual champions have been number 1 seeds. 6/30 (20%) have been number 2 seeds. 4/30 (14%) have been number 3 seeds. Only 1/30 (3%) was a number 4 seed. So doing the math tells us that 90% of the time had I answered that question that way I would have been right. So now you know why when I am trying to pick the champion at the beginning of March Madness I choose to ignore any number 5 seeds or higher. Since I can’t wager on all sixteen top seeds I use a very clinical method to eliminate some of the pretenders.
Over the last 24 years the eventual champion has averaged 26.3 regular season wins. Based on this criteria we can dust Xavier (25), Kansas (25), Wake Forest (24), and Washington (25). We also shold give one knock to Syracuse and Gonzaga who both ended the regular season with 26 wins apiece.
Our next eliminator is each team’s last 10 game regular season record. Since 1991 the eventual champion has gone at least 7-3 95% of the time. This criteria confirms our decision on Xavier (5-5) and helps us get rid of a number 2 seed in the Southern Region. Oklahoma went only 6-4 over their last ten regular season games.
We next want to remove the winner of this year’s Maui Invitational because only twice in the last 23 years (9%) has some team been able to hit the Maui-Madness double. So long North Carolina!!!
We also want to eliminate the winner of the pre-season NIT which this year is Oklahoma so they now have a double knock against them.
We next want to kick to the curb any top seed that lost it’s first game in their conference tourney. This year number 1 seeds Pitt and U Conn, number 2 seed Oklahoma, number 3 seed Kansas and lastly number 4 Wake Forest did just that.
Now we want to eliminate the team ranked number one at the beginning of the tourney because said team has been able to run the table only 3 times in the last 25 (12%). Good-Bye Louisville!!!
The next criteria I use to eliminate teams is coaching TENure. Here I am looking for a head coach to be at the school a minimum of ten years. This year their are only five teams who possess this advantage Duke (29 years), Michigan State (14 years), Syracuse (23 years), Gonzaga (10 years) and U Conn (23 years). I am giving a hall pass to Memphis since their coach has been there for 9 years and they have the highest point differential (1.30) of all the tournament teams and give up the fewest point per game (56.9).
That leaves us left with three number two seeds Duke, Michigan State and Memphis. After looking at their road records Duke (7-5), Michigan State (12-1) and Memphis (10-2) I feel comfortable eliminating the three-point reliant Blue Devils. So go to the windows on the M&M boys Michigan State and Memphis. A quick look at the current odds from the Hilton tells us we can get 15 to 1 on the Spartans and 12 to 1 on the Tigers. I hope my numbers are wrong because I am holding tickets on Pitt and Duke but either way let the Madness begin.
Stat of the Day: 23 of the last 48 teams (48%) to MAKE the Championship game have been number ONE seeds.