Stateline Is For The Birds!!!
Just got back from my annual spring trip to the desert and the crowded streets and sidewalks of Las Vegas are for the BIRDS. Just another reminder as to why for the last several years I have chosen to set up shop at Primm Nevada otherwise known to Californians as Stateline. The crowds aren’t the only reason I avoid the Strip. The construction work is never ending. The latest project is called the The City Center located between the Bellagio and Monte Carlo resorts. The towers they are building will make the center of the Las Vegas strip look like Dubai. I can’t understand how the city’s politicians can continue approving these projects with no thought of how people are going to get from point A to point B with their outdated freeway system and the awful congestion the locals fight when they dare use the surface streets. The good news is that the days for shopping for good future odds on the Strip appears to have come to an end at about the same time the city’s expansion plans have made it a two or three day project to get them. Gone are the days when I could pick up odds to win the American and National League pennants from a dozen different casinos in a matter of hours. Another negative is that now many of the properties are owned by the same corporation and there is little if any difference in odds. Thank goodness the betting Gods have preserved Stateline for us old timers who are not impressed with the “bigger is better” attitude of the Vegas politicians.
I will later compare the odds for two Strip sports books versus the numbers in Primm but first let’s take a look at some of the statistics I use to zero in on my picks. Remember I always throw out the repeaters and the favorites not because I necessarily believe they are not the best team but because they offer no value and that word value is key to winning in the long run when betting the futures in any sport. My chart as of April 30,2009 for the American League is below:
| Team | Wins | Losses | PCT. | Place | Run Diff. | Bat. Avg. | HR | ERA | Away Record |
| Boston | 14 | 7 | .667 | 1st | 1.34 | .284 | 26 | 4.09 | 4-5 |
| Toronto | 15 | 8 | .652 | 1st | 1.31 | .290 | 29 | 4.25 | 8-5 |
| Seattle | 13 | 9 | .591 | 1st | 1.11 | .262 | 15 | 3.47 | 8-5 |
| KC | 11 | 10 | .524 | 1st | 1.17 | .247 | 23 | 3.50 | 5-4 |
| Detroit | 11 | 10 | .524 | 1st | 1.07 | .265 | 23 | 4.29 | 6-7 |
| Chicago | 11 | 10 | .524 | 1st | .99 | .261 | 25 | 4.52 | 5-4 |
| Minnesota | 11 | 11 | .500 | -1/2 | .80 | .262 | 16 | 5.26 | 3-5 |
| Texas | 10 | 10 | .500 | -2 | .98 | .270 | 39 | 5.79 | 4-6 |
| Angels | 9 | 11 | .450 | -3 | .95 | .280 | 19 | 4.81 | 3-5 |
| New York | 11 | 10 | .524 | -3 | .92 | .277 | 32 | 5.88 | 7-8 |
The Tampa Bay Rays last year’s winner did not make this year’s list and the Red Sox are the current 2 to 1 favorite so that puts the Blue Jays at the top of my 2009 AL list. Their 15-8 record is even more impressive when you look at the fact that they have gone 8-5 on the road. I have numbers that I am looking for in each of the columns above and the Blue Jays are the team that meets most of the criteria this year so now all we have to do is shop for the best possible odds. In the chart below I have the odds for each team listed above as posted on Tuesday at Stateline, Planet Hollywood and the Paris.
| Team | Primm | Paris | Planet Hollywood |
| Boston | 2/1 | 9/5 | 2/1 |
| Toronto | 17/1 | 7/1 | 12/1 |
| Seattle | 8/1 | 10/1 | 8/1 |
| KC | 20/1 | 14/1 | 8/1 |
| Detroit | 14/1 | 4/1 | 15/1 |
| Chicago | 15/1 | 5/2 | 8/1 |
| Minnesota | 9/1 | 5/2 | 5/1 |
| Texas | 35/1 | 12/1 | 25/1 |
| Angels | 9/1 | 5/2 | 10/1 |
| New York | 3/1 | 6/5 | 3/1 |
The Yankees at 6/5??? The Angels at 5/2??? Give me the Blue Jays at 17/1 and I will enjoy the summer months to come and just maybe those Blue Jays will be playing in October. Now in keeping with this week’s BIRD theme let’s take a look at the National League.
| Team | Wins | Losses | PCT. | Place | Run Diff. | Bat. Avg. | HR | ERA | Away Record |
| St Louis | 15 | 7 | .682 | 1st | 1.35 | .287 | 23 | 3.63 | 5-4 |
| Los Angeles | 14 | 8 | .636 | 1st | 1.35 | .285 | 20 | 4.26 | 8-8 |
| Florida | 13 | 8 | .619 | 1st | 1.01 | .244 | 22 | 4.52 | 8-4 |
| Philadelphia | 11 | 9 | .550 | -1 1/2 | 1.06 | .270 | 29 | 5.63 | 6-2 |
| San Diego | 11 | 10 | .524 | -2 1/2 | .85 | .258 | 23 | 4.72 | 5-6 |
| Atlanta | 10 | 11 | .476 | -3 | .94 | .257 | 18 | 4.06 | 6-6 |
| San Francisco | 10 | 10 | .500 | -3 | .96 | .255 | 12 | 3.90 | 2-7 |
Now as you can see there are only seven teams on the NL list as opposed to ten for the AL. Why? 38 of the last 42 (90%) pennant winners were within three games of first place on April 30th. Last year’s winner the Phillies at least made the list but that 5.63 ERA and being the repeater will not get it done so let’s take a look at the three teams above them. Florida has a nice young pitching staff and they will most likely be playing in October but since I am looking for at least a 1.23 run differential on April 30th I have to pass on the Fish. The Dodgers are the 2/1 favorite so you know what that means….NATTA!!! So that leaves the Cardinals as my 2009 National League play and it sure doesn’t hurt hearing the news today about Manny being Manny. The odds for the Cardinals were 6 to 1 at Primm and Planet Hollywood but only 7/2 at Paris so once again no matter what color BIRD (RED or BLUE) you are shopping for Stateline appears to be the place to buy. The news isn’t all good from Primm though because for as many years as I can remember you have been able to get a hot dog and cold draught beer for a buck at the bar right inside the door of the casino but now it’s two and a half bucks for just the dog. At least there is no immediate threat of it looking like Dubai. Thanks for listening and let’s chat next weekend.
Stat of the Day: Since 2000 6 of the 12 (50%) teams starting the season 4-0 have made the playoffs. This year’s team that went 4-0 is the Florida Marlins.