Off To A Little Madness In Las Vegas
Tommorrow morning I plan on making the three and one half hour trip to Primm, Nevada. My older brother is out visiting from Ohio so I thought it might be fun to take him to Vegas for a little Madness. He loves to wager on sports so I thought he might enjoy the Sweet Sixteen/Elite Eight weekend in Sin City. In preparation for our departure I decided to compute the tournament point differential for each of the remaining teams. The results are below by region:
Indianapolis
| Kansas | 1.23 |
| Louisville | 1.21 |
| Arizona | 1.21 |
| Michigan State | 1.15 |
Glendale
| U Conn | 1.73 |
| Memphis | 1.21 |
| Missouri | 1.16 |
| Purdue | 1.05 |
Boston
| Xavier | 1.27 |
| Villanova | 1.24 |
| Duke | 1.22 |
| Pitt | 1.13 |
Memphis
| UNC | 1.45 |
| Oklahoma | 1.32 |
| Syracuse | 1.23 |
| Gonzaga | 1.10 |
When you look at each region using these numbers it appears that two number one seeds (U Conn-1.73 and UNC-1.45) are holding form but in Boston and Indy the numbers are a little surprising. Louisville has not distanced themselves from the competition and Pitt has struggled to advance to this weekend. Obviously recent bandwagon talk on U Conn is justified by their lofty 1.73 tourney differential which is by far the best of any remaining teams and almost .30 better than runner-up UNC. Meanwhile at the other end of the spectrum is Purdue (1.05) and Gonzaga (1.10). Interestingly enough the two top teams meet the two lowest ranked teams in the sweet sixteen round. I think you know by now which side of the fence I will be on in those two contests. Pitt (1.13) the third number one seed is currently laying 7 points to Xavier which has actually outperformed the Panthers since the Madness began. Louisville (1.21) the last number one seed has played well but struggled against number nine seed Sienna and yet they are laying nine points to an Arizona squad that has equalled their tourney point differential.
Now let’s take a look at the current odds to win it all at the Hilton :
| Louisville | 7/2 |
| UNC | 7/2 |
| Pitt | 6/1 |
| U Conn | 6/1 |
| Memphis | 6/1 |
| Duke | 15/1 |
| Oklahoma | 15/1 |
| Syracuse | 15/1 |
| Villanova | 15/1 |
| Gonzaga | 18/1 |
| Michigan State | 20/1 |
| Kansas | 25/1 |
| Missouri | 30/1 |
| Purdue | 40/1 |
| Xavier | 50/1 |
| Arizona | 50/1 |
I see value in U Conn at 6/1 becuase they looked by far to be the best number one seed last weekend. Granted they have one of the easier sweet sixteen opponents in Purdue and then they must face the Memphis-Missouri winner but if they get to the Final Four they most likely be facing Louisville a team they totally manhandled earlier this year at Freedom Hall. The question is if they face Pitt in the Championship game will the third time be the charm? A couple of longshots I am eyeing are Villanova and Syracuse both listed at 15/1. Let’s not forget I have already invested in Pitt and Duke earlier this year so I must practice sensible money management so as not to own a winning ticket and still end up like 98% of the people visiting Vegas this weekend….A LOSER!! Thanks for listening.