2009/2010 BCS Bets Are Down
I spent last Wednesday and Thursday in beautiful Las Vegas where the temperatures hovered in the 100 to 115 degree range. I heard one news reporter state that temperatures inside a car with the windows rolled up could reach 143 in a matter of minutes. Nice weather to go shopping for the best odds on a football game that will not be played until on January 7th, 2010. I have been doing this drill for 35+ years and I must say that I hope the recent legalization of sports wagering in the State of Delaware is a prelude to the same for the rest of the country. Maybe I should write the Govenator a letter and point out to him the amount of revenue that is deposited day in and day out into the Nevada coffers by Californians. As I walked from casino to casino first in downtown Las Vegas and then on the famed Strip I couldn’t help but ask myself “Why can’t there be an easier way?” With the NFL threatening to sue the state of Delaware causing yet another delay in making nationwide sports wagering legal and with me being well into the back nine of my life I still have nightmares that the day this mad prohibition comes to an end will be the same day I get checked into an Autum of your Life Alzheimer’s Clinic. Despite the heat I still enjoy gathering the numbers and squeezing the absolute best number I can get out of the boys who run the mega sports books in Las Vegas. This year was no exception so let me share with you this year’s journey.
I first stopped at Stateline and gathered BCS and NFL odds for the upcoming season. Then it was on to downtown where the temperature had already reached 97 degrees at 10:00 in the morning. To my dismay the sheet and the odds at the Union Plaza were now identical to those at Stateline. Just another sign that the discrepancy in futures odds between casinos is disappearing. In the old days every casino was different and many times the difference was huge. The age of computers and casino property mergers has done in the old ways and methods that were used to post these numbers. The next morning I parked at the old Tropicana and gathered the BCS and NFL odds from numerous Strip properties. Below I have charted the fifteen schools that I believe have the best chance of showing up at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena in January. I have also listed the lowest and the higest odds I found for each team.
| Team | Best Odds | Worst Odds |
| Florida | 2/1 | +140 |
| Oklahoma | 11/2 | 2/1 |
| USC | 8/1 | 4/1 |
| Texas | 6/1 | 4/1 |
| Ohio State | 14/1 | 8/1 |
| Alabama | 25/1 | 20/1 |
| California | 50/1 | 35/1 |
| Georgia | 75/1 | 50/1 |
| Penn State | 35/1 | 25/1 |
| Mississippi | 28/1 | 20/1 |
| Notre Dame | 28/1 | 25/1 |
| Virginia Tech | 27/1 | 25/1 |
| Oklahoma State | 40/1 | 35/1 |
| Boise State | 125/1 | 80/1 |
| BYU | 250/1 | 75/1 |
Obviously defending Champion Florida deserves their favortism because of the return of QB Tim Tebow along with six other offensive starters and the return of all 2007 defensive starters. But not so fast!!! Although I cashed on last year’s edition of the Gators any regular reader of this space knows that when betting the futures the first thing this handicapper does is throw out the defending champ. Why? Since 1936 only 11 times (11/73=15%) has a team repeated as Champion. Given those odds I would hesitate to take the Pittsburgh Steelers in this situation at odds of only 2/1. Plus if they MAKE the Championship game you can then bet them at these low odds THEN instead of NOW. So who did I play? My big wager went on the Longhorns of Texas. They feel they got jobbed last year after beating Oklahoma and instead of playing for the Championship they went to the Fiesta Bowl. They have 16 returning starters including QB Colt McCoy who has one of the few arms that can match Tebow and company should they play on January 10th. The 6/1 odds fall within my parameters of 5/1 or better on any futures wager. Although my main wager is on Texas I also placed smaller wagers om three other “longshots” that I believe have a chance to make a run at Pasadena at juicy odds. Let’s start with Penn State at odds of 35/1. They have solid talent and a remarkably weak schedule for a BCS school. I believe Ohio State and Michigan are going to slip a little and with no Big Ten Championship Game the Nittany Lions might be undefeated come December which would probably put them in Pasadena. My next longshot play is on the Irish of Notre Dame. Yesterday one of my best friends on this earth and a lifelong Irsih supporter dropped by for a visit. When I told him I had just returned from Vegas where I had placed a wager on Notre Dame at 28/1 he was astonished to say the least. Their schedule is very weak and I believe they have a very successful season ahead of them under third year QB Jimmy Clausen. The last team I wagered on will draw a few laughs I am sure. That team is BYU at odds of 250/1. What happens if they upset Oklahoma on September 5th in Arlington, Texas and then run the table to an undefeated season? Boise State beat Oklahoma why can’t BYU? If the Cougars end up the only or one of two undefeated squads how much pressue would the BCS be under to put them into the Rose Bowl? Probably not likely but at 250/1 I am willing to take a shot. I am really looking forward to the beginning of football season and now I have a little something extra to root for. Thanks for listening.
A Bettor Approach, College Football, Football, Sports Betting