Home Cooking Used To Be The Way To Go In Divisional Round
It used to be that playing the home teams in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs was like having the pin number to a free ATM machine linked to the Las Vegas strip. Times have changed and the old saying nothing good lasts forever should be on every pundit’s mind this weekend. Since 1990 when the league went to a twelve team format home teams facing wild card game winners have gone 55-17 straight up for a 76% winning percentage. According to our friends over at America’s Line you can lay -150/100 on the Titans, -440/100 on thr Panthers, -170/100 on the Giants and -230/100 on the Steelers. If you want action on all four contests and you don’t mind laying 990 to try and win 400 then have at it.
Personally I don’t like laying all that wood and it only takes one big upset to ruin your weekend. So the only alternative is to look at the same teams against the number. Here the home teams during the same time frame are only 38-32-2 or a pathetic 54% winning percentage. Even more alarming is the same home teams record against the number since 2000: 16-19-1 for a 46% winning percentage. Yes it is definitely time to take a long look at going against these home favs. The lights don’t shine bright every night in Vegas because the books are slow on the switch.
Another look I like to take at this weekend’s contests is in the figures below:
| Team | Yards For | Yards Against | Yards Ratio |
| Titans | 313.6 | 293.6 | 1.07 |
| Ravens | 324.0 | 261.1 | 1.24 |
| Team | Yards For | Yards Against | Yards atio |
| Steelers | 311.9 | 237.2 | 1.31 |
| Chargers | 349.0 | 349.9 | 1.00 |
| Team | Yards For | Yards Against | Yards Ratio |
| Giants | 355.9 | 292.0 | 1.22 |
| Eagles | 350.5 | 274.3 | 1.28 |
| Team | Yards For | Yards Against | Yards Ratio |
| Panthers | 349.7 | 331.2 | 1.06 |
| Cardinals | 365.8 | 331.5 | 1.10 |
Interestingly enough three of the four underdogs (Ravens, Eagles and Cardinals) own better yard ratios than their home favorite opponents. Also take a look at how close the yards against figures are for all four contests. In last week’s ABA I mentioned what a close race to the Super Bowl this was going to be and these stats show why. Parity is here to stay in the NFL and it only means better wagering opportunities for those of us willing to spend the time and do the work. Thanks for listening and let’s chat next Friday.
Stat of the Day: Since 1960 playoff teams laying ten points or more are 36-13 (73%) against the number.