Football Is Finally Here
Although I have had a successful baseball season so far I am more than ready for some football. Maybe its because my futures ticket on the Oakland A’s is history and the ones I own on the White Sox and Diamondbacks don’t look much better. You have to know though that I still have a shot in a season that sees those lovable losers the Cubs in first place and with the best record in baseball. Both pennants are still up for grabs and I am not ready to concede the AL to the Angels or the NL to Lou’s Wrigley Field bunch.
Tonight (Thursday) marks the beginning of another college football season and it is very important to protect your bankroll so as to not tap out before the real games get underway. In years past I would wager on big underdogs in games played before Labor Day but the season starts earlier now and there are almost a full slate of games this weekend. Many of the country’s top teams are playing patsies and lines are not even being posted on these games. So I thought I would use this week’s newsletter to share with you an opening day trend I am tracking but not yet wagering on. Let’s call it the “Bowl Hangover Theory”. It is simply betting against any team that lost their bowl game last season by 14 or more points when they open up on the road or are underdogs on opening day. There were a lucky 13 squads that got blown out in their post-season finale. 8 of those 13 squads are opening up against much weaker foes and there are no lines posted. Of the remaining 5 teams one is at home and favored so it leaves us with four betting opportunities all being played on Saturday:
1) Ole Miss is a 7 ½ favorite versus Memphis who lost last year’s New Orleans Bowl 44-27 to Florida Atlantic.
2) Missouri is minus 9 versus Illinois who got shellacked (49-17) by USC on New Years Day in Pasadena.
3) Florida is a 34 point favorite at home versus a Hawaii team that not only got blown out by Georgia (41-10) in the Sugar Bowl but lost their coach during the off season as well. Add in the long flight from the islands to “the swamp” and the Gators start looking very inviting even laying the big number.
4) In the last game you would be wagering against a Bowling Green squad that got buried 63-7 by Tulsa in the last GMAC Bowl. They are going on the road to face Pittsburgh and are a 13 point underdog.
My theory on testing the results of this situation is quite simple. Getting manhandled in a bowl game can leave a lasting negative effect on a football program and it’s players. This is just one of many early bird college football theories that I am tracking but not yet wagering on. If you are going to be successful at this wonderful game of sports handicapping it helps to think out of the box once in awhile. Thanks for listening and let’s chat next Friday.
Stat of the Day: This is the five year anniversary of “A Bettor Approach”. I would like to thank everyone for their feedback and comments.