I Am Bowled Over
Tomorrow morning at 8:00AM here on the West Coast Wake Forest and Navy will hook up in the Eagle Bank Bowl which is the first of thirty-four bowl games played over a 20 day period. If the NCAA believes that these games are taking place because of alumni interest check out the empty seats at many of these minor bowls and then try and tell me that there is any other reason for their existence than to make the sports gamblers happy. Office and bar pools exist everywhere across this country and in Las Vegas people will be getting down on some of these games on their way to getting their first Starbucks of the day. The first weekend of March Madness is this handicapper’s favorite time of the year but the holiday bowl season is a close second. This week I thought I would share with you one of the more successful betting trends for the bowl games. It is an easy one to follow and it has gone 38-13 (75%) against the number over the last fifty-one games including 5-1 back in the 2007/2008 bowl season. It is no secret that most coaches start their bowl games by attempting to establish their running game. If they are successful the opposition is usually in for a long day or evening. So what about the teams who have been successful in stuffing the run? Yes, bowl dogs who have given up 100 yards or less on the ground per game during the regular season but are not considered worthy of favoritism in the eyes of the lines makers. This year the first opportunity to cash in on this trend comes on Sunday, December 28th when Northern Illinois and Louisiana Tech hook up in the Independence Bowl. As of this writing Tech is a 1 1/2 point dog despite allowing only 1204 yards on the ground in twelve regular season games for an average of 100.3 per game. Thus they just barely qualify for our rushing defense trend.
The next chance to cash comes in the Grand Daddy of them all where Penn State is currently a 9 point dog to the number one defense in the country. That fact and the memory of the beating they gave Ohio State early on in the season may push this number to double digits and if so I will be waiting for a chance to get down on the Nittany Lions who allowed only 95.9 yards per game on the ground during this past season. Joe Pa’s crew is small but their quickness and Paterno’s success in bowl games cannot be overlooked.
The last chance to play on this trend comes January 2nd when Ole Miss takes on the high octane offense of the Texas Tech Red Raiders. A team that may be disappointed they are not playing in this year’s BCS Championship game. Mississippi is currently a 5 1/2 point underdog despite allowing only 85.0 yards a game on the ground during the regular season. The Cotton Bowl dog might make for some good pickin. Of course no pun intended.
These three dogs might be worth playing but of course other handicapping tools have to be considered and the best “bowling” advice I can give you is DO NOT PLAY EVERY GAME. If you do your book will love you every minute of the way and you will start the new year with a lighter wallet than you have today. Thanks for listening and let’s chat next Friday.
Stat of the Day: The Heisman Trophy winner is 1-5 straight up in the BCS Championship game.