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Defense Wins Super Bowls But What If?

Neither team plays defense. With the over under total hovering between 55 and 57 (the highest ever in Super Bowl history) the boys in Vegas obviously think we are in for a shoot out come Sunday. The public must agree because the number keeps rising. I am not so sure I agree. First off I believe the Colts defense is better than they look and I believe the Saints know if they can run successfully they will keep the ball out of Manning’s hands and thus avoid the up and down the field game that Manning almost always wins.  Below is what I call my Super Bowl Leaning On Defense Chart:

Since 1970 teams sweeping all four categories have gone 14-3 (82%) straight up in the Super Bowl. Teams like this years edition of the Colts that have held a 3 to 1 edge in these categories have gone 12-8 (60%) straight up in the Super Bowl.  All the numbers above are close so I expect a lot of late action will come in on the Saints who have become America’s darlings but before you follow the sheep to the…..I thought you should know teams making their Super Bowl debut are 9-20 straight up and the last nineteen went 6-12-1 against the number. Thanks for listening.

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Super Bowl Formula Points To Saints

Prior to the Pittsburgh Steelers defeating the Seattle Seahawks 21 to 10 in the 2006 Super I read an article in the LA Times written by Sam Farmer that used eleven indicators to determine which team will win the Super Bowl. Being the figure filbert I am I immediately began tracking this formula’s validity and comparing it with the ones that I use. The article claimed that the team which held the edge in most of the eleven categories had won the Super Bowl 29 of 38 years or 76% of the time. Denver’s Super Bowl XXXIII victory over Atlanta was not included because the indicators were 5-5-1. I must remind my readers that this impressive 76% win percentage is straight up and not against the spread. In 2006 the underdog Seahawks held a 6 to 5 edge over the Steelers but lost the game outright making this “Super” formula 29-10-1 (73%). In 2007 the Chicago Bears held a 7-3 edge over Peyton Manning and the Colts. We all watched Rex Grossman implode and hand the Lombardi Trophy to Tony Dungy and crew to post yet another “Super” formula loss making the new record 29-11-1 (71%). In 2008 the undefeated Patriots held an impressive 9 to 2 lead in indicators but lost outright to the New Yoek Giants dropping the “Super” formula winning percentage below 70% to 29-12-1 (69%). Last year the Steelers entered Super Bowl XLIII with an 8 to 3 edge in indicators and prevailed but not before the Arizona Cardinals pushed them to the brink of defeat. That puts the “Super” formula record at 30-12-1 or 71% success heading into February 7th’s clash between the Colts and the Saints. Below I have charted for you the indicators for each of the two teams:

So this year’s “Super” formula gives the Saints a 6 to 5 edge in the eleven indicators. The best current money line odds (Odds to win the game outright) I could find on those Saints in Las Vegas are +190 at the MGM Mirage. Meaning IF you wager $100 on New Orleans and IF they pull the upset you receive $290 back for a profit of $190.  Just remember before you plow down on Drew Brees & Company the “Super” formula has been WRONG three of the last four years. Thanks for listening.

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An outfit called Las Vegas Sports Consultants who dispenses odds to 90% of the casinos in Nevada also ranks the thirty Major League Baseball teams on a weekly basis during the regular season. I would believe the sports book managers use these ratings to adjust their future prices on teams to win the American and National League Championships as well as the World Series. Their week twelve poll has the Boston Red Sox and the Los Angeles Dodgers ranked first and second respectively. The Sox with a record of 44-28 .611 and the Dodgers sporting a MLB best record of 47-26 .644  are the only two teams playing +.600 baseball. They both have 25-10 home records but Joe Torre’s group has experienced much more success on the road going 22-16 versus the Sox who have only gone 19-18. They have the New York Yankees ranked third and with a record of 40-32 they have fallen four games behind the Red Sox and have the Toronto Blue Jays 40-34 and Tampa Bay Rays 39-35 breathing down their necks. The regular readers of this space know that I wagered on the Blue Jays to win the American League pennant at 17 to 1 back in May. LVSC has Toronto ranked number ten up from position fourteen last week. It is my observation over the years that the REAL contenders usually stay within five games of their division lead so I have not given up hope that when they get ace Ray Halladay back in the rotation they can make a run at the boys from Fenway. The Blue Jays have been forced due to injuries to use eleven different starters five of whom are rookies. Baseball is the streakiest sport of all and this year’s edition of the Colorado Rockies are living proof of that. The Rockies have gone  17-3 since June 4th which has earned them the number 18 post in this week’s rankings. The defending world champions Phillies are ranked 4th and lead the Mets by a half game in the NL East Division. They are a league best 24-11 on the road but are an unexplainable 13-22 at home. The team I wagered on in May to win the National League Pennant the St Loius Cardinals are ranked 7th in this week’s LVSC poll.  They currently hold a one game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers a team they have exchanged the division lead with multiple times over the course of this season. The Red Birds have also suffered injuries to their pitching staff and the return of ace Chris Carpenter should tell us if they are REAL pennant contenders or middle of the road pretenders. Below I have listed the top ten as well as the bottom ten in this week’s LVSC rankings. The bottom ten might be a good way to start a bet against list for the next month or so.

Here are MLB’s worst teams according to the Las Vegas Sports Consultants

I find these weekly rankings intriguing and I have a lot of respect for the people over at Las Vegas Sports Consultants and their numbers but we haven’t even started the dog days of summer so I am in no hurry to concede the AL and NL Pennants to the Red Sox and Dodgers. Anyway the time to play the futures for Major League Baseball has come and gone. The sports books and offshore establishments have lowered the odds on all the REAL contenders to unbettable odds for most astute handicappers. Thanks for listening.

Uncategorized Weekly MLB rankings mean little today

As Governor Arnold Schwarznegger jets back from DC to the insolvent state he runs I thought I might help him with a bail out plan for Californea (as he pronounces it). Why doesn’t he follow the lead of Delaware Governor Jack Markell and legalize sports wagering accross the state and while he is at it why not legalize all forms of gambling now legal in Las Vegas. Yes, the federal government would have to approve such a measure but they are in no position to say no. How can they let four states collect revenue on this activity but yet deny that right to the other forty-six state governments. The lobbyists representing Nevada in Washington have had their way long enough. How many favors and gratuities do you think have changed hands over the years to ensure Nevada’s virtual monopoly on legalized sports wagering?

You see Delaware has no sales tax so Governor Markell has pushed through a bill that legalizes sports wagering in his state. I heard him this week on the Dan Patrick radio show say that although this activity will be limited to three facilities (racetracks) the projected revenue for the first year alone is $52 MILLION!! Now if tiny little old Delaware could wager that kind of money what do you suppose Californians would risk? Also isn’t the Govenator backing a bill to lessen our dependence on foreign oil? How much oil do you think is burned every weekend when thousands of Californians make the five hour car trek accross the desert to Las Vegas? I also find it amusing that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell feels legalizing sports wagering in “other” states would undermine the integrity of the game and make the public question certain plays and calls. Does he live in a bubble or what? He knows gambling has made the NFL the monster that it is he just can’t admit it publicly.  What does Fantasy Football add to the integrity of the game?What other business in America can hold cities hostage to build a “NEW PLANT” with tax payers money under the threat of relocating. NFL lobbyists have to be some of the most powerful people in Washington.

The NCAA also chimes in with their anti-gambling rhetoric and they too are represented in political circles by spokepersons like Rachael Newman Baker who say legalized sports wagering will undermine the college atheletes. This is the same organization that makes millions of dollars by pulling kids out of low income neighborhoods putting them on television to display their talents for four years and then what? Most of these kids do not go on to the NFL, NBA or MLB to make millions. Yet the NCAA generates more than half a billion dollars annually because of them which is ALL TAX EXEMPT REVENUE!!!! Wouldn’t we all like to be invited to some of the “events” thrown by the various NCAA personnel during the bowl season or March Madness.

Now I am not into politics and I am into politicians even less but enough is enough. Billions of dollars in revenue is being sent overseas via internet gambling and many a state could use the additional revenue generated by legalizing sports wagering accross America. Let’s hope the Govenator will wake up in time.

Uncategorized Add new tag, The Wiz helps the Govinator solve Califonia's financial crisis

With filly Rachel Alexandra being the talk of  Saturday’s 134th running of the Preakness Stakes I thought I might share with you one of the charts I have on new shooters participating in this the second jewel of the Triple Crown. A new shooter in this context is a horse that skipped the Kentucky Derby and is now entered against Derby starters at Pimlico in Baltimore on Saturday afternoon. The chart below shows how Derby horses fared in the last ten runnings of the 1 3/16 Mile Preakness. In any column filled with a “D” followed by a number it is designating a Kentucky Derby starter and where he finished in the Derby (Example: the 2001 Preakness winner finished 5th in the Derby). An “X” means a NON Derby starter finished in that position.

The chart shows that 9 out of the last 10 (90%) Preakness winners were Derby horses and 8 of 10 (80%) hit the board in the Derby. Now you exotic players may find it interesting that in 4 of the 10  (40%) last runnings the exacta was completed by Derby horses. In 3 of 10 years (30%) the trifecta was all Derby starters and in all 20 of 30 (67%) horses finishing in the money in the Preakness were also Kentucky Derby runners. This year’s Derby starters who are also running in the Preakness are listed in the chart below:

I don’t know about you but  based on history I see a lot more wagering value in the chart above than I do in betting on an 8/5 filly wheeling back in only two weeks after romping home by twenty plus lengths in the Kentucky Oaks. In fact my Derby/Preakness charts go all the way back to 1971 and I will spare you the details but in summary 33 of the last 38 (87%) Preakness winners have been Derby horses. In addition 23 of those 33 (70%) had hit the board in the Derby. Once again for you exotic players 59 of the 76 (78%) horses completing the last 38 Preakness exactas were Derby horses and 85 of the 114 (75%) entries completing the trifecta were also exiting the Kentucky Derby. Now I like a good looking filly as much as the next guy but tossing Rachel and playing a few of the seven Derby horses  might make for a more profitable Saturday. 

Stat of the Day: Since 1979 the Kentucky Derby post time favorite has run in the Preakness 25 times winning 8 times (32%) finishing second 5 times (20%) and finishing third 2 times (16%). Does that mean Friesan Fire has a 68% chance of hitting the board in Baltimore on Saturday? 

Uncategorized The Wiz takes a look at non Kentucky Derby horses in the Preakness

Just got back from my annual spring trip to the desert and the crowded streets and sidewalks of Las Vegas are for the BIRDS. Just another reminder as to why for the last several years I have chosen to set up shop at Primm Nevada otherwise known to Californians as Stateline. The crowds aren’t the only reason I avoid the Strip. The construction work is never ending. The latest project is called the The City Center located between the Bellagio and Monte Carlo resorts. The towers they are building will make the center of  the Las Vegas strip look like Dubai. I can’t understand how the city’s politicians can continue approving these projects with no thought of how people are going to get from point A to point B with their outdated freeway system and the awful congestion the locals fight when they dare use the surface streets. The good news is that the days for shopping for good future odds on the Strip appears to have come to an end at about the same time the city’s expansion plans have made it a two or three day project to get them. Gone are the days when I could pick up odds to win the American and National League pennants from a dozen different casinos in a matter of hours. Another negative is that now many of the properties are owned by the same corporation and there is little if any difference in odds.  Thank goodness the betting Gods have preserved Stateline for us old timers who are not impressed with the  “bigger is better” attitude of the Vegas politicians.

I will later compare the odds for two Strip sports books versus the numbers in Primm but first let’s take a look at some of the statistics I use to zero in on my picks. Remember I always throw out the repeaters and the favorites not because I necessarily believe they are not the best team but because they offer no value and that word value is key to winning in the long run when betting the futures in any sport. My chart as of April 30,2009 for the American League is below:

The Tampa Bay Rays last year’s winner did not make this year’s list and the Red Sox are the current 2 to 1 favorite so that puts the Blue Jays at the top of my 2009 AL list. Their 15-8 record is even more impressive when you look at the fact that they have gone 8-5 on the road. I have numbers that I am looking for in each of the columns above and the Blue Jays are the team that meets most of the criteria this year so now all we have to do is shop for the best possible odds. In the chart below I have the odds for each team listed above as posted on Tuesday at Stateline, Planet Hollywood and the Paris.

The Yankees at 6/5??? The Angels at 5/2??? Give me the Blue Jays at 17/1 and I will enjoy the summer months to come and just maybe those Blue Jays will be playing in October. Now in keeping with this week’s BIRD theme let’s take a look at the National League.

Now as you can see there are only seven teams on the NL list as opposed to ten for the AL. Why?  38 of the last 42 (90%) pennant winners were within three games of first place on April 30th. Last year’s winner the Phillies at least made the list but that 5.63 ERA and being the repeater will not get it done so let’s take a look at the three teams above them. Florida has a nice young pitching staff and they will most likely be playing in October but since I am looking for at least a 1.23 run differential on April 30th I have to pass on the Fish. The Dodgers are the 2/1 favorite so you know what that means….NATTA!!! So that leaves the Cardinals as my 2009 National League play and it sure doesn’t hurt hearing the news today about Manny being Manny. The odds for the Cardinals were 6 to 1 at Primm and Planet Hollywood but only 7/2 at Paris so once again no matter what color BIRD (RED or BLUE) you are shopping for Stateline appears to be the place to buy. The news isn’t all good from Primm though because for as many years as I can remember you have been able to get a hot dog and cold draught beer for a buck at the bar right inside the door of the casino but now it’s two and a half bucks for just the dog. At least there is no immediate threat of it looking like Dubai. Thanks for listening and let’s chat next weekend.

Stat of the Day: Since 2000 6 of the 12 (50%) teams starting the season 4-0 have made the playoffs. This year’s team that went 4-0 is the Florida Marlins.

Uncategorized The Wiz makes his MLB Pennant Picks