Wizofodds.com

This week pundits are offering all kinds of methods for picking the winner of Saturday’s Belmont Stakes including dosage indexes, Beyer speed figures, Thorographs, Mazur Indexes, Centers of Distribution, Professional or stamina wings in the DP and last if not least if it rains make sure you know each horses Tomlinson Rating. Now I have been following the nags for 40+ years. My first  horse handicapping experience came back in 1965 when I was detained and cited for underage gambling at Northfield Park by a State of Ohio  gaming official. The worst part of the experience was that my parents thought I was attending my after prom party that night. Old pops went into quite the tirade when the “official” letter arrived from Columbus warning him of a hefty fine if they ever caught me again placing wagers on any four legged creatures within the state’s borders. I remember being only slightly deterred and simply switching my allegiance to old Ascot Park and Thistledown. So after all these years I have learned that betting the horses day in and day out is a losing experience and horse racing will never be a fair game until they start telling us what the horses weigh. That still doesn’t stop me from putting a little something on the Triple Crown races including Saturday’s 141st running of the Belmont Stakes. The exotic pools are huge and there are a lot people betting into them who have no idea where to buy a Racing Form let alone how to read one. Today on a lighter note I want to share with you my secret Alphabet Formula for picking the winner of Saturday’s third and final race of this year’s Triple Crown.

The Alphabet Theory is fairly easy to compute once I give you my secret formula which has taken many years to come up with. The table below will get us started.

Now comes the “secret”part. As you can see from the chart above a horse who’s name begins with the letter “C” has won the Belmont 14% of the time. That would make Chocolate Candy and Charitable Man our pre-race favorites. Horses who’s name begin with the letter “S” have won  12% of the time so that would make Summer Bird our third choice. This year there are no “P”, “H” or “A” horses and only one “B” horse, that being Nick Zito’s Brave Victory. Now as far as a betting strategy goes why don’t we box these four (1-4-6-10) with Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird (7). A $1.00 Exacta Box will run you $20.00, a $1.00 Trifecta Box will cost $60.00 and if you are feeling REALLY lucky and cash heavy buy yourself a $1.00 Superfecta ticket boxing the same five entries and that wager will set you back another $120.00. So there you have it. If probable race favorite Mine That Bird fails to hit the board and the other four entries do the good news will be that you will have made a lot of money but the bad news is that The Alphabet Theory will no longer be a SECRET!!! Good Luck and thanks for listening.

A Bettor Approach, Horseracing, Triple Crown Wiz offers unique way to bet The Belmont

Every year at this time all the pundits argue about whether their horse got a good post position or not. I thought it might be fun to take a look at this year’s twenty horse field along with the history of their respective post positions since 1900. I will break the anaysis into four parts starting with  PP#1 through PP#5. As you can see from the table below there is not ONE post position that wins an inordinate amount of times but by doing some simple arithmetic we realize that 49 times out of the last 109 runnings the winner came from post position 1 thru 5. That is 45% of the time!!!

Now lets look at the post positions 6 thru 10.

Post position #9 has only won 4 times in the last 109 editions but once again if you look at the numbers for all five posts you see that another 39 winners or 39% of all winners comes from this group. Going one step further by totalling the two tables we find that 88 of the 109 winners or 81% came from posts #1 thru #10. From a handicappers point of view I find it very intriguing that only one horse Friesan Fire has single digit morning line odds.

Now let’s breakdown post positions #11 thru #15.

There’s the morning line favorite stuck in the 13 hole with a history of 3/109=3% past winners. Doing the same math as we did previously we find that if past history holds up there is a 94% chance that the winner is in one of these three tables. Of course not all of the 109 races sampled had full fields but I believe you can still use these numbers to include or toss a horse in your exotics. In reality #15 Dunkirk should be in our final table but more about that after we compile stats for PP#16 thru #20.

The reason I mentioned that Dunkirk should perhaps be in the previous table is that he will be joining these last five in what is called the auxillary gate. A second starting gate which is used in racing when more than 14 entries are taken in a given race. This causes there to be an abnormal space between the #14 and the #15 post positions. Long to be considered a big disadvantage by owners, jockeys and trainers recent history has seen the connections gravitate towards taking these outside posts. My statistics show that since 1974 nine Kentucky Derby winners have come from the auxiallary gate including four in the last ten years and considering there was NO auxillary gate in 2006 and 2007 this seems to no longer be an obstacle. My records also show that a total of 120 horses have been loaded into the auxillary gate sine 1974 nineteen have finished in the money or 16%. Now if you love a horse who drew an outside post don’t let me or any of these numbers scare you off wagering on him. I have watched and bet on over fifty Run for the Roses and as a rule the fastest horse that avoids trouble is usually the winner. The latter is more easily said than done when a field of twenty young three year old colts and gelding hook up for the most exciting two minutes in sports.

A Bettor Approach, Horseracing, Triple Crown The Wiz takes a look at the history of post position in the Kentucky Derby

Call me stubborn or call me stupid but I am still not ready to let go of the Dual Qualifier theory for picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby. A week from Saturday as many as twenty three year olds will load into the gate at Churchill Downs for the most important race of their young lives. Some will be yearlings that cost their owners millions of dollars and others will be running in company well above what their price tag predicted. That is what makes the Kentucky Derby so special. I recently read a book entitled The Homerun Horse which documents the bidding process and the massive amounts of money that owners spend in an attempt to own a winner of America’s most famous horse race. Now I am not usually into recomending books but if you are an avid horse player and a fan of the American Triple Crown this one is a must read.

Now most horse players have their own tried and proven handicapping methods and I am not one into trying to change people’s minds at the betting windows but at least if you are going to be wagering on this year’s Derby  take a closer look at these five three year old colts I have listed below in alphabetical order:

CHOCOLATE CANDY-Northern California based horse owned by diet mogul Jenny Craig has been chasing Pioneer of the Nile and I Want Revenge since he finished third behind them in last December’s Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park. He came up one length short against Bob Baffert’s Pioneer again this month in the Santa Anita Derby. The key here is that back in December he was ridden by Rafael Bejarano and this month his connections switched to Joel Rosario. Now I have the opportunity to watch both of these fine young riders on a daily basis but neither is tabbed to ride him in Louisville. That privilege has been handed to Mike Smith. Yes, the same Mr Smith that guided Giacomo home back in 2005 to the tune of $102.60 for every $2.00 wagered on him to win. Is the switch to Smith worth one length? This handicapper thinks so.

I WANT REVENGE-This one figures to battle Florida Derby winner Quality Road for Kentucky Derby 135 favortism based on his humongus effort in the Wood Memorial. He finished second to Pioneer of the Nile by a nose in the previous mentioned Cash Call Futurity and was beaten a length and a half by the same in February’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes. He was then shipped to New York where he won the Wood and the Gotham in a four week span. Joseph Talamo, another young talented Southern California based rider has been aboard in all four starts and has been tabbed by trainer Jeff Mullins to be up again on May 3rd. Talamo’s lack of experience could be a factor on how this one finishes but I came away very impressed with his ride in the Wood.

PIONEER OF THE NILE-All this one does is WIN but yet there are several others that have garnered all the attention.  On top of that look who is back in the Derby limelight? Bob Baffert that’s who. If anyone doubts ”Whitey’s” ability to get a horse ready to run a 1 1/4 on the first Saturday in May just check the replays of the 2002 (War Emblem), 1998 (Real Quiet) and 1997 (Silver Charm) Derbies. You might also take a gander at the 1996 replay when Baffert’s Cavonnier was beaten a nose by Grindstone. So doing the math Baffert trained entries have won 3 of the past 12 Derbis or 25% and just missed 4 out of 13.  Veteran jockey Garret Gomez has been aboard in his victories in the Cash Call Futurity, the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, the San Felipe and the Santa Anita Derby. I trust a rider of his quality and experience has had plenty of opportunities to catch a different ride in Louisville but this “Just Win Baby” obviously is his top choice.

SQUARE EDDIE-This one finished second in the San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita back in January then went on the shelf for three months with a cannon bone injury. He finished third last week in his comebacker in the Lexington Stakes and although I have a great deal of respect for his trainer Doug O’Neill and even more for his rider Edgar Prado of Barbaro fame I think Mr Reddam his owner may be driven more by ego than by common horse sense. Prado’s switch this week to Dunkirk a horse that did not run as a two year old (No Derby winner has done so since Appollo in 1882) tells us what Prado thinks of “Eddie’s” chances in Louisville. Corey Nakatani picks up the mount. So what!!

WEST SIDE BERNIE-This horse has slipped into the Derby under most pundits radar despite losing the Wood to I Want Revenge by only 1 1/2 lenghts. He took last year’s Kentucky Cup Juvenile by three lengths and finished sixth in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile at odds of 19 to 1. He then disappeared for almost five months before resurfacing in the Lane’s End where he was a soundly beaten sixth place finisher with Edgar Prado aboard.  When he showed up for the Wood Prado chose to ride Imperial Council instead so Stewart Elliot took the call. Now jockeys are notorius poor handicappers but it appears Mr Prado has chosen Dunkirk over this one as well. Enoough said.

Now you might ask why I have zeroed in on these five charges and the answer is very simple. They are all Dual Qualifiers. These horses are a select group that own a Dosage Index of 4.00 or lower. DI is a mathematical index developed by Dr Steve Romans that quantifies a horses’ ability to negotoate 1 1/4 miles. According to his theory, a horse with a DI of 4.00 or under has the in-bred ability to handle the Derby distance. A Dual Qualifier is also weighted within 10 pounds of the top 2 year-olds in the Experimental Weights which is a ranking of the top Derby candidates based on their two year old campaigns. Before you turn your nose up let me tell you these DQs have captured 20 of the last 30 (67%) Derbies. Maybe that’s why I am STILL intersted in DUAL QUALIFIERS.

Stat of the Day: Dual Qualifiers have won 2/3 of the last 30 Derbies but have represented only 21% of the total entries.

A Bettor Approach, Horseracing, Sports Betting, Triple Crown Wiz takes early look at Derby contenders