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On Tuesday night Major League Baseball will be playing their 80th All Star Game at Busch Stadium in St Louis to determine which league will have home field advantage in next October’s Fall Classic. Can you imagine if the Super Bowl was played at one team’s home stadium based on the results of the Pro Bowl? That’s another discussion for a different day. I heard on a radio sports talk show yesterday a talking head going on and on about how the American League lineup was far superior and that they were going to put a world of hurt on the National League. Of course being the ultimate contrarian it makes me like the National League at “home” with the league’s best player (Albert Pujols) even feeling more at home.  This week I would like to analyze betting the midsummer classic from a different angle. Let’s start by looking at the total number of runs scored in the past 79 contests and perhaps we will come up with a betting strategy for this year’s game. Below I have charted the number of times totals have come since the first game was played in 1933 (Remember there were two All Star Games played in both 1960 and 1961).

Interestingly enough 8 runs and 9 runs are tied for the two most common totals for the All Star Game with 7 runs being a close runnerup. The average for the 79 games comes out to 8.46 runs per game. In 44 of the 79 contests (56%) the two teams combined for 8 runs or less. In 35 of the games (44%) the total landed on 9 runs or more.  Now let’s look at the last ten contests in the chart below:

In only 18 of 79 All Star Games  (23%) have the two teams scored a dozen or more runs and four of those occurred in the last ten years (2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005). There was a total of 92 runs scored in these ten games for an average of 9.2 runs per game almost 3/4 of a run higher than the average for all 79 games. So now let’s take it one step further and go back ten more years:

Wow, four more double digit games (1992,1993,1994 and 1998) and a whopping total of 98 runs scored in the ten games for an average of 9.8 runs per game.  If you add the two last decades together you get a total of 190 runs or 9.5 runs per game which is over one run higher than the average for all games. Clearly the All Star contest has become a higher scoring affair over the last two decades. The total for the game next Tuesday has yet to be posted but hopefully these stats will help you make a decision whether to go over or under. Either way it is a fun way to play the All Star Game that I have enjoyed over the years. Thanks for listening.

A Bettor Approach, MLB, Sports Betting Next Tuesday's All Star Game is bettable

Last Friday I gave my MLB clients the Mets at +180 versus their crosstown rival the Yankees and many of them told me later that they were able to get down on them at over +200. The Mets took an 8-7 lead in the top of the eighth inning and with ace closer Francisco Rodriguez on the mound Mets backers like myself were feeling pretty good about bringing home the BIG DOG. A-Rod quickly got himself into a ninth inning jam but Met’s backers appeared out of the woods when Alex Rodriguez popped up to three-time Gold Glove winner Luis Castillo at second base. As Castillo attempted the catch while moving towards the right field foul line the unbelievable happened. He dropped the frigging ball and then in attempt to make things better he rifled the ball to the shortstop holding Rodriguez on first base. The only problem is that in the meantime Derek Jeter scored the tying run from second and Mark Teixeira came all the way from first base to score and send the Mets down to a stunning 9-8 defeat. Losing doesn’t usually bother me but I must admit that one stung a little bit. I was just starting to forget about THAT defeat and really did not consider it yesterday when I released those same Mets as +110 dogs.  Last night the Orioles trailed the Mets by one run entering the ninth and so far this season they WERE 0-34 in such a situation. K-Rod came into pitch the ninth and with his .56 ERA and 16 saves in 17 chances (Except last Friday) once again we Mets backers felt pretty good about our wagers. Tweny pitches later we all got that sinking feeling AGAIN. After loading the bases Rodriguez walked in the tying run and then Aubrey Huff lined a single into right field to send the Orioles into a wild on field celebration. We Mets backers once again saw what appeared to be a sure victory turned into a gut wrenching defeat. These two scenarios just point out the importance of having a competent bullpen in Major League Baseball. I thought this week we should take a look at which teams have the best bullpens season to date. Below I have charted the top ten ranked bullpens in baseball:

It comes as no surprise to this handicapper that the two teams with the best records in baseball the Dodgers (44-23) and the Red Sox (40-26) are both ranked in the top four based on MLB’s ranking by ERA. Having learned the lesson TWICE in the last week ERA although important is not what we pundits are concerned with. Thus I have ranked these same ten teams in the chart below based on a more wager friendly basis.

Four of the current six division leaders are on this list: Red Sox, Dodgers, Brewers and Phillies. This is no accident because if you look at the other end of the spectrum ie the Washigton Nationals you will find that baseball’s worst team has a leaky bullpen that sports a whopping 5.57 ERA and a success rate of only 42%. As we head into the long dog days of this year’s baseball season these bullpen numbers will become more important as many starters will tail off in the number of innings they can pitch and more games will be decided in the late innings. One of the things I have learned over the years about betting the bases is that when even one of the league’s best relievers comes in to protect a lead for a team you have wagered on you still have at least a 34% chance of losing (based on Mets 66% success rate in above table) and this past week proved to be no exception. Believe it or not these stinging last minute losses is part of the allure for the millions of Americans who love to wager on sports. Thanks for listening.    

A Bettor Approach, MLB, Sports Betting In MLB a bullpen's performance makes a huge difference

Three years ago I took a Mexican Riviera Cruise with my nephew who got married on a small island while we were docked in Puerto Vallarta. That same cruise ship docked in Cabo San Lucas the next day and I took a quick tour of the local Caliente sports book in attempt to bet on the innaugaral World Baseball Classic.  I liked the 10 to 1 odds on Japan to win the tournament but the house declined my attempted wager because unbeknownst to me Japan had already played a game. Try keeping up with the wide world of sports on a cruise ship when some days you have internet access and some days you don’t. Well here we are three years later and I get another chance to right the SHIP (no pun intended).

The second WBC has the same 16 team field it had in 2006 and the 39 games it takes to crown a champion will begin on March 5th and end in Los Angeles on March 23rd. All the games will be televised on either ESPN or the new MLB network. The US and Dominican Republic teams are the only two comprised of all major league players although the Dominican squad will not have Albert Pujos or Manny Ramirez in the lineup.  I believe the defection of many MLB stars along with complaints from many MLB managers puts this tournament in jeopardy moving forward. At least we pundits know that we have three weeks of action this year so let’s get to the business at hand.

I believe wagering on single games is a tough road to how based on the fact many of the players come from varying levels of competition. My attempted hunch bet three years ago was based on the presence of Daisuke Matsuzaka on the Japanees squad and he came through being named the WBC MVP. This year the defending champion not only has Matsuzaka back but they have added 22 year old phenom Yu Danvish considered by many to be the best pitcher in Japan. No wonder according to www.betonline.com  they are the -300 favorites to be the winner of Group A. In Group B Cuba is the -500 betting favorite, in Group C the USA is the -300 chalk and finally in Group D the Dominican Republic is posted as the -250 favorite. Putting a little something on all four favorites ($1,350 to win $400) although risky it gives you action in all four Groups and you are betting on four of the five best teams in the tourney. It’s that fifth team that might prevent a first round sweep by the favorites.

Now for picking this year’s champion. Below are the odds posted on www.betonline.com for winning the second World Baseball Classic:

USA                                   +175

Dominican Republic  +200

Japan                               +400

Cuba                                 +800

Korea                            +2000

If you are a regular reader of this space then you know that I have three steadfast rules when it comes to wagering on the futures:

1) Toss the favorite (Goodbye USA)

2) Toss the returning champion (Goodbye Japan)

3) Insist on at least 5 to1 odss (Goodbye Dominican Republic)

Well that leaves us with two bettable teams Cuba (8 to1) and Korea (20 to 1). Interestingly enough Korea made the semifinals in 2006 and Cuba lost the Championship game to Japan. In fact in the 2006 Classic the Cuban squad tallied the second most total bases  finishing behind only eventual champion Japan. The nucleus of their 2006 squad is back for another title run in this year’s edition. Fidel’s national team has been to the finals in 38 straight international tournamnents. They lost the gold medal game in Beijing to a team from Korea. Basically the same team that is 20 to 1 to win the second World Baseball Classic. I will have a little something on both of these squads. Should be fun to watch while we await the start of March Madness. Thanks for listening and let’s chat next Friday.

Stat of the Day: South Africa is 5,000 to 1 to win Group B and 20,000 to 1 to win the 2009 WBC.

A Bettor Approach, MLB