Wizofodds.com

It seems like this year’s edition of March Madness has flown by but I think everything seems to go faster the older you get. Just ask two of this year’s Final Four head coaches Tom Izzo and Jim Calhoun who have been at their schools 14 years and 23 years respectively. If you recall in last week’s Stat of the Day I told you that 7 of the last 9 champions (78%) were led by a head man that had been at the school for at least ten years. The current odds on U Conn are 9 to 5 and the Spartans are 4 to 1 and I believe either team is capable of running the table in Detroit this weekend. UNC is the heavy favorite at 10 to 11 odds and Villanova is listed at the same 4 to 1 number as Michigan State. The public will be betting on both favorites on Saturday but history tells us that since 1985 in the Final Four the teams with fewer wins have won 23 of 48 times STRAIGHT UP!!! A quick look at the current money line odds on Michigan State (+155) and Villanova (+220) makes a wager on BOTH teams look very inviting. Below I have listed some trends about wagering on the Final Four I have kept track of since 1991:

1) Betting ON teams getting 7 or more points has gone 8-1 (89%) against the number. Villanova.

2)  Betting AGAINST teams who have covered in all four previous tournament games has gone 14-4 (78%) against the number. Michigan State and Villanova.

3) Betting AGAINST any team coming off two straight up underdog wins has gone 7-2 (78%) against the number. UNC.

4) Betting ON #1 seeds when playing against non #1 seeds has gone 12-6 (67%) against the number. UNC and U Conn.

Yes, as you can see the numbers conflict each other which suggests to me that the two dogs are alive and well and may do some considerable barking at Ford Field on Saturday.

Stat of the Day: If Villanova upsets UNC on Saturday they will become the 17th team to reach the Championship game after defeating the Tar Heels. 8 of the previous 16 (50%) went on to win the Championship. Shades of 1985?

A Bettor Approach, College Basketball, March Madness, Sports Betting Wiz Offers Final Four Insights

Tommorrow morning I plan on making the three and one half hour trip to Primm, Nevada. My older brother is out visiting from Ohio so I thought it might be fun to take him to Vegas for a little Madness. He loves to wager on sports so I thought he might enjoy the Sweet Sixteen/Elite Eight weekend in Sin City. In preparation for our departure I decided to compute the tournament point differential for each of the remaining teams. The results are below by region:

Indianapolis

Glendale

Boston

Memphis

When you look at each region using these numbers it appears that two number one seeds (U Conn-1.73 and UNC-1.45) are holding form but in Boston and Indy the numbers are a little surprising. Louisville has not distanced themselves from the competition and Pitt has struggled to advance to this weekend. Obviously recent bandwagon talk on U Conn is justified by their lofty 1.73 tourney differential which is by far the best of any remaining teams  and almost .30 better than runner-up UNC.  Meanwhile at the other end of the spectrum is Purdue (1.05) and Gonzaga (1.10). Interestingly enough the two top teams meet the two lowest ranked teams in the sweet sixteen round. I think you know by now which side of the fence I will be on in those two contests. Pitt (1.13) the third number one seed is currently laying 7 points to Xavier which has actually outperformed the Panthers since the Madness began. Louisville (1.21) the last number one seed has played well but struggled against number nine seed Sienna and yet they are laying nine points to an Arizona squad that has equalled their tourney point differential.

Now let’s take a look at the current odds to win it all at the Hilton :

I see value in U Conn at 6/1 becuase they looked by far to be the best number one seed last weekend. Granted they have one of the easier sweet sixteen opponents in Purdue and then they must face the Memphis-Missouri winner but if they get to the Final Four they most likely be facing Louisville a team they totally manhandled earlier this year at Freedom Hall. The question is if they face Pitt in the Championship game  will the third time be the charm? A couple of longshots I am eyeing are Villanova and Syracuse both listed at 15/1. Let’s not forget I have already invested in Pitt and Duke earlier this year so I must practice sensible money management so as not to own a winning ticket and still end up like 98% of the people visiting Vegas this weekend….A LOSER!! Thanks for listening.

A Bettor Approach, March Madness The Wiz Looks At Current Odds Of Sixteen Remaining Teams

I can’t go very many places this time of the year without someone asking “So who do you like?” Well an easy answer would be one of the sixteen top seeds. Since 1979, 16/30 (53%) eventual champions have been number 1 seeds. 6/30 (20%) have been number 2 seeds. 4/30 (14%) have been number 3 seeds. Only 1/30 (3%) was a number 4 seed. So doing the math tells us that 90% of the time had I answered that question that way I would have been right. So now you know why when I am trying to pick the champion at the beginning of March Madness I choose to ignore any number 5 seeds or higher. Since I can’t wager on all sixteen top seeds I use a very clinical method to eliminate some of the pretenders.

Over the last 24 years the eventual champion has averaged 26.3 regular season wins. Based on this criteria we can dust Xavier (25), Kansas (25), Wake Forest (24), and Washington (25). We also shold give one knock to Syracuse and Gonzaga who both ended the regular season with 26 wins apiece.

Our next eliminator is each team’s last 10 game regular season record. Since 1991 the eventual champion has gone at least 7-3 95% of the time. This criteria confirms our decision on Xavier (5-5) and helps us get rid of a number 2 seed in the Southern Region. Oklahoma went only 6-4 over their last ten regular season games.

We next want to remove the winner of this year’s Maui Invitational because only twice in the last 23 years (9%) has some team been able to hit the Maui-Madness double. So long North Carolina!!!

We also want to eliminate the winner of the pre-season NIT which this year is Oklahoma so they now have a double knock against them.

We next want to kick to the curb any top seed that lost it’s first game in their conference tourney. This year number 1 seeds Pitt and U Conn, number 2 seed Oklahoma, number 3 seed Kansas and lastly number 4 Wake Forest did just that.

Now we want to eliminate the team ranked number one at the beginning of the tourney because said team has been able to run the table only 3 times in the last 25 (12%). Good-Bye Louisville!!!

The next criteria I use to eliminate teams is coaching TENure. Here I am looking for a head coach to be at the school a minimum of ten years. This year their are only five teams who possess this advantage Duke (29 years), Michigan State (14 years), Syracuse (23 years), Gonzaga (10 years) and U Conn (23 years). I am giving a hall pass to Memphis since their coach has been there for 9 years and they have the highest point differential (1.30) of all the tournament teams and give up the fewest point per game (56.9).

That leaves us left with three number two seeds Duke, Michigan State and Memphis. After looking at their road records Duke (7-5), Michigan State (12-1) and Memphis (10-2) I feel comfortable eliminating the three-point reliant Blue Devils. So go to the windows on the M&M boys Michigan State and Memphis. A quick look at the current odds from the Hilton tells us we can get 15 to 1 on the Spartans and 12 to 1 on the Tigers. I hope my numbers are wrong because I am holding tickets on Pitt and Duke but either way let the Madness begin.

Stat of the Day: 23 of the last 48 teams (48%) to MAKE the Championship game have been number ONE seeds.

A Bettor Approach, March Madness The Wiz separates the contenders from the pretenders

I am still licking my wounds from the Steeler’s failure to cover the 6 1/2 point impost in Super Bowl 43 despite going 8-2 during the playoffs the clients always tend to remember the last game you gave them. Hopefully most of my clients have been around long enough to know better than to load up on any ONE given game even the Super Bowl. What make sports betting so much fun is that it is a year round event. I am looking forward to the second edition of the World Baseball Classic next month as well as compiling my stable of Kentucky Derby prospects but we all know it is only six weeks or so before March Madness. Probably the most exciting time of the year for avid sports bettors. I thought I would let you take a look at my top twenty contenders and their current odds courtesy of www.BoDog.com:

I feel very confident that this year’s Final Four are on this list and that this year’s champion is somewhere near the top but I can’t remember a year when so many teams actually have a shot at the national championship. For the record I have placed wagers on Pittsburgh at 5 1/2 to 1 and the Duke Blue Devils at 12/1 to be the team celebrating this coming April in Detroit but you can’t overlook some of the double digit (odds) teams listed above. Just remember keep an eye on each team’s point differential and in which direction it is going as we head into the dog days of the regular season. Thanks for listening and let’s chat next Friday.

Stat of the Day: Since 1985, 23 of the 48 (48%) teams MAKING the Championship game were #1 seeds.

March Madness