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Saturday afternoon Cal State Fullerton will have a freshman starting pitcher on the mound but nevertheless they have been tabbed as the 2009 College World Series favorites. Over the next two weeks eight of America’s top college programs will battle through a double elimination tournament for the right to reach the final best of three games series. As I have in past years I will take a closer look at the field from a betting angle and hopefully point to a team or two that might warrant a second look or even a good size wager. Let’s start by looking at the present odds on all eight teams by bracket:

I don’t know if it’s just me but the odds this year seem less generous than in years past. Perhaps the odds makers off shore and in Las Vegas have been burned in recent years by guys like me who pay closer attention to this event than most. Well we have to play the cards we are dealt so let’s get on with evaluating the eight squads from a handicapping angle. If you are a regular reader of this space you know that I am going to start with regular season run differential. Below I have listed the teams from best to worst:

As you can see there is a big difference from top to bottom with Virginia holding over a full run (1.04) edge over Arkansas. That doesn’t seem like much but remember this number is over an entire regular season which for most major division one teams  consists of fifty to sixty games. Having the ability to outscore the opposition two runs to one over an entire season is quite the accomplishment and Virginia, Arizona State and Cal State Fullerton have this handicappers attention. For the record LSU scored the most regular season runs (524) and Texas gave up the fewest (215).

The next stat I like to look at is how each team fared playing away from their own friendly confines or in other words their road record which I have charted below once again from best to worst. After all Omaha is a nuetral site for all eight teams.

There is Fullerton and Virginia again at the top of the chart. The only down side on backing Virginia is their lack of World Series experience which does not exist. They join Sothern Miss. as this year’s two World Series virgins. Fullerton pounded their way through both the Regionals and Super Regionals outscoring their opponents 64 to 11 and their 4 Championships over the last thirty years is second to only LSU’s 5 Championship runs during the same time frame. Texas has 3 crowns and Arizona State 1 during this period while no other team in this year’s field has exited Omaha with a Championship trophy. Experience counts and based on that fact LSU and Texas deserve an extra look based on the past success of their programs but I am going to pull a ”homer” here and pick the Titans of Cal State Fullerton to take this year’s College World Series. I sure don’t like the number (5/2) on this group that plays their home games down the freeway from me but neither can I ignore their numbers in getting here. GO TITANS!!  

A Bettor Approach, College World Series, Sports Betting Wix turns his attention to the 2009 College World Series

Webster defines “seeding” as to schedule teams in a tournament so the superior teams do not meet in the early rounds. He also defines “superseding” as displacing one in favor of another and to force out of use as inferior. So my next question is are the eight teams seeded by the NCAA Division One baseball committee last Monday Super Seeds or soon to be Superseded? The truth is that the last five College World Series winners were unseeded at the beginning of the tournament including last year’s champion Fresno State Bulldogs who went all the way despite going only 33-27 in the regular season. The tournament starts this weekend with four teams each at sixteen locations trying to avoid two losses and elimination from the tournament. One team from each region will advance to the Super Regionals which begin next Friday and the teams switch to a best two out of three games format. So only five victories separate each team from a trip to Omaha, Nebraska for the College World Series. Six of the eight top seeds made it to Omaha last year but only three did so the year before so it goes without saying that if you do your homework there is some money to made wagering on this event. Let’s take a look at the current Las Vegas odds to win it all on the top eight seeds.

Any of the above eight teams could get hot and run the table to and through Omaha. Texas second to only USC in titles has probably the deepest pitching staff with starters Ruffin, Green and Workman and proven closer Austin Wood. They will be tough to beat but I am a little biased towards a team who opens play tonight about two miles from my home…..the Anteaters from UC Irvine.  They are armed with a couple of killer B’s named Bibona and Bergma both junior starters who have gone a combined 20-3 this season for a team that won 43 games. Southpaw Danny Bilbona starts tonight against the defending champion Bulldogs of Fresno State and rightie Christian Bergma is scheduled to take the mound on Saturday. Anteater fans should know by Sunday whether they have a shot at going to “corn country” this year. Also in the Irvine regional is San Diego State (40-12) coached by Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn and led by projected number one draft pick pitcher Steven Strasburg who went 13-0 this year with a 1.24 ERA.  The current odds on the Aztecs are 75/1. Interesting, VERY interesting!!! Personally I will be waiting for the field to be in Omaha before wagering on my pick(s). Remember these are young kids not professionals and a lot can happen between here and Omaha.

A Bettor Approach, College World Series, Sports Betting The Wiz takes an early look at the College World Series