Keep Your Money Management Program Simple
As we close in on the start of the 2009 football season I like to remind my readers that this handicapping game is a marathon not a sprint. On Thursday, September 3rd the collge games begin followed the very next Thurday with opening night of the long NFL season. I am very often asked why I don’t grade my selections and call them 4 or 5 star picks or give them catchy names like SEC Upset of the Week. Well my answer has always been that it is tough enough to pick more winners than losers let alone trying to assign each game a grade or preference. Having said that one word of advice I always give my subscirbers at this time of year is to practice good money management. I thought I would take this week to discuss my approach to money management and perhaps it will give each of you some useable ideas on the subject.
1) Determine the breakdown and size of your bankroll BEFORE the season begins.
This is not a decision you want to make in the heat of battle!! If you do so while on a bad losing streak what are the chances you are going to make a rational decision? Doing so while on a winning streak can also be costly because at that point in the game of picking winners looks easy. I persinally like to break my football bankroll into three parts. Part One I call Futures is what I am willing to risk on a team or teams to capture either the BCS Championship or the Super Bowl . If you like to be play the overs and unders on regular season wins or some other exotic wager that takes most of the season to determine the outcome than I would include that in Part One of my football bankroll. I don’t know why but I seem to derive a lot more pleasure making and following these types of wagers than most players. To me there is nothing more enjoyable than having the right team at a big number on Championship day. Part Two of my bankroll I call the Regular Season Money. Some people prefer to divide their college and NFL bankrolls but to me I want to know how I did for the weekend and it doesn’t matter if “show me the money” comes on Saturday or Sunday or even Monday. Bottom line to me is did I win? Part Three of the bankroll I call the Post Season money. These funds are set aside to bet on the college bowl games and NFL playoffs including the Super Bowl. So many people arrive at the post season busted or cut off by their man. That has never made any sense to me because I have always found that the college bowls offer great value and the NFL’s road to the Super Bowl is the most exciting part of the professional season. Now let’s take a look at the size of each part of the bankroll. My rule of thumb is to never wager anymore than I feel comfortable losing. Forget chasing the big score because that kind of thought process will get you hammered most likely sooner than later. Once you have determined how much you can afford to lose for the season than determine in your mind which wagers bring you the most entertainment value for your dollar. If you are undecided then split your bankroll in three and let this year’s results determine next year’s percentages. If you are not making these kind of decisions NOW than the odds are not good that you are going to have a successful wagering season. I have always believed that betting on sports should be looked on as a way of spending part of your entertainment budget thus I have always wanted a good bang for my buck.
2) How much should I bet on a game?
I hear this one a lot during the season. I have read many books on money management and have tested numerous theories and complicated formulas and I have found nothing that works better than just using good old common sense. Personally I never wager more than 10% on any one event and if you follow this premise you will automatically be wagering more when you are winning and less when you are losing which is just what you should be doing. The sad part is that most people do just the opposite. Remember this is a marathon and you need to grind the house down. The books like nothing more than for you to plow down on one “lock” game and come away a loser. Such actions usually lead to a shark like feeding frenzy and we all know that the house almost always wins in this situation. Also avoid wagering on any game just because it is televised in your area or making a larger than normal wager because it is this week’s BIG game. Why do you suppose Vegas has come up with all those crazy proposition bets on the Super Bowl? The answer is easy because they know the public wants as much action as they can get on this game. If you have ever been in Sin City for a Super Bowl than I am sure you have heard the constant chatter in the sports books about the “good” prop bets everyone thinks they have made. I have never understood how anyone could be on the right side of the most watched game in the world and still go home a loser because he or she got suckered into making a bunch of uneducated guesses on prop lines. The casinos rely on such behavior.
3) Trips to Vegas or Delaware are STILL part of your bankroll!!
It is only human nature that you will make more wagers on sporting events when you are somewhere like Las Vegas on a football weekend so therefore set aside a LITTLE extra for that special weekend but if you noticed I capitalized LITTLE. Remind yourself that what you win or lose on such a trip should be added or subtracted from your season’s bankroll. Many times over the years clients have asked me to leave my selections on their cell phones while they are enjoying a weekend in the desert and evn if WE come out ahead they come home with losing stories. Just because you are somewhere where you can wager on everything that moves doesn’t mean you should.
4) Write down EVERY wager you make.
I can tell you what wagers I made as far back as August 1984 to include who I bet on, how much I wagered and what the end result was. I ALWAYS write down EVERY wager I make and have FOREVER. Why lie to yourself? If you don’t practice this simple activity you are doomed for failure. It is only human nature to remember the good hits and profitable days and to conveniently forget or have vague memories of those dark days. Name one other activity you would continue to do without experiencing any success. Writing every bet down seems a little childish but try it for just one football season and you might be surprised at your own behavior. I also include WHY I wagered on or against a team which I find helpful when analyzing the inevitable winning and losing streaks. In conclusion I by no means have all the answers about money management and sports wagering but if you pick up just one of the habits I have talked about here today or enforce on yourself some of the boundaries mentioned than I have done my job of giving you A Bettor Approach!!!
A Bettor Approach, College Football, Football, NFL, Sports Betting