Wizofodds.com

Every autumn I travel to Las Vegas to play the Super Bowl futures and I have been relatively successful following a simple formula of throwing out last year’s winner as well this year’s favorite and lastly not accepting less than 5 to 1 odds.  Last fall I wagered 100 units on the Colts at 8 to1 and the Giants at 7 to 1 to WIN the Super Bowl. I also put 50 units on the Saints at 9 to 1 odds and the Broncos at 30 to 1. Half of my original investment of 300 units is now gone (Giants 100/Broncos 50). I also wagered 20 units on the New York Jets at 32 to 1 during a holiday trip between Christmas and New Years. I ordinarily do not wager on any team that late into the season but the fact that this year’s Jets allowed the fewest points and the fewest yards during the regular season caught my attention because my records show that 5 of the last 8 teams (63%) to accomplish that feat WON the Super Bowl. So my total investment is 320 units as we head into Championship weekend and I have three live teams. Below I have computed my ROI (return on investment) on all four remaining potential Super Bowl participants.

Now this approach may not appeal to those who crave immediate action but I have found it to be a very interesting and profitable way to wager on the NFL season and I dedicate a good portion of my pro football bankroll to it. Given the fact that the NFL season lasts five months (September thru January) and I usually wager in early October the potential ANNUAL ROIs are really 750% should the Colts win, 423% if the Saints come marching home and 600% should the Jets shock the world once again in Miami. Yes, I am not kidding myself that the old gunslinger up in Minnesota has no chance to take the Vikings all the way but that is why they call this activity gambling. I indeed challenge anyone to top these annual rates of ROI in  either today’s CD or real estate markets. Now let’s take a statistical look at Sunday’s matchups:

AFC MATCHUP COLTS VS JETS

Historically Super Bowl teams play great defense and control both sides of the ground game. The chart above shows us that history is on the Jet’s side. The Colts were outrushed by almost 800 yards during the regular season while the Jets on the other hand nearly doubled their opponents ground game numbers. Turnovers which are key in every game become even more important when we reach the semi finals of the Super Bowl. The two teams had identical regular season plus one turnover ratios but when you look at the huge difference in offensive philosophy with the Colt’s wide open attack versus the Jets close to the vest running attack  you must ask yourself are the two plus one numbers equal. I personally don’t think so. The next number is also very telling. The Colt’s defense recorded 21 more sacks than their offensive counterparts gave up while the Jets were a measely +2 in the same category. This could be the difference maker in the AFC Championship game. Manning has an uncanny ability to know when to get rid of the ball while Sanchez although he has been great in the playoffs he did have several miserable days during the regular season. I expect the Colts to throw everything at the rookie QB early and if he survives the initial onset than the Jets have a chance for the road victory. On the other hand if this were the seventh game of the World Series who would you rather have on the mound? Peyton Manning with his 99.9 QB rating or Rookie Sanchez and his 63.0 passing efficiency on the road in the loud fan unfriendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium? If the Jets pull it off Rex Ryan and crew will be the fan darlings of Super Bowl XLV.

NFC MATCHUP SAINTS VS VIKINGS

When I look at this matchup I think of my childhood days when the only thing on television were old westerns like Wyatt Earp and Gunsmoke. The plots were not very complicated and the nightly episodes usually ended with two of the town’s fastest quick draw experts facing off in the middle of main street with the whole town looking on. Well Sunday night I see the Saints-Vikings game going the same route. Look at the two QB ratings in the chart above. The bset of the old versus the best of the new. This game should be fun to watch. I don’t believe either team can afford to play it close to the vest so it should be bombs away in the Bayou. The Vikings looked like world beaters taking out the Cowboys last weekend but there is one Viking game that I can’t get out of mind. It was the Monday night game played on December 28th. I happened to be in the sports book at the Wynn Resort in Vegas when these same Vikings traveled to Chicago and lost in overtime 36-30 to the lowly Bears. Giving up 36 points to the BEARS?? No game better illustrates the fact that the Vikings are a far different team when they hit the road. Although they went 8-0 at home they were a mere 4-4 on the road. Now they travel to New Orleans to face a team that is completely healthy for the first time since summer camp. Add in the fact that Reggie Bush has finally figured out he needs to run straight ahead instead of sideways to be successful in the NFL and maybe just maybe the new young gun will still be standing after Sunday’s last draw. Thanks for listening.

A Bettor Approach, NFL