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Last Friday I gave my MLB clients the Mets at +180 versus their crosstown rival the Yankees and many of them told me later that they were able to get down on them at over +200. The Mets took an 8-7 lead in the top of the eighth inning and with ace closer Francisco Rodriguez on the mound Mets backers like myself were feeling pretty good about bringing home the BIG DOG. A-Rod quickly got himself into a ninth inning jam but Met’s backers appeared out of the woods when Alex Rodriguez popped up to three-time Gold Glove winner Luis Castillo at second base. As Castillo attempted the catch while moving towards the right field foul line the unbelievable happened. He dropped the frigging ball and then in attempt to make things better he rifled the ball to the shortstop holding Rodriguez on first base. The only problem is that in the meantime Derek Jeter scored the tying run from second and Mark Teixeira came all the way from first base to score and send the Mets down to a stunning 9-8 defeat. Losing doesn’t usually bother me but I must admit that one stung a little bit. I was just starting to forget about THAT defeat and really did not consider it yesterday when I released those same Mets as +110 dogs.  Last night the Orioles trailed the Mets by one run entering the ninth and so far this season they WERE 0-34 in such a situation. K-Rod came into pitch the ninth and with his .56 ERA and 16 saves in 17 chances (Except last Friday) once again we Mets backers felt pretty good about our wagers. Tweny pitches later we all got that sinking feeling AGAIN. After loading the bases Rodriguez walked in the tying run and then Aubrey Huff lined a single into right field to send the Orioles into a wild on field celebration. We Mets backers once again saw what appeared to be a sure victory turned into a gut wrenching defeat. These two scenarios just point out the importance of having a competent bullpen in Major League Baseball. I thought this week we should take a look at which teams have the best bullpens season to date. Below I have charted the top ten ranked bullpens in baseball:

It comes as no surprise to this handicapper that the two teams with the best records in baseball the Dodgers (44-23) and the Red Sox (40-26) are both ranked in the top four based on MLB’s ranking by ERA. Having learned the lesson TWICE in the last week ERA although important is not what we pundits are concerned with. Thus I have ranked these same ten teams in the chart below based on a more wager friendly basis.

Four of the current six division leaders are on this list: Red Sox, Dodgers, Brewers and Phillies. This is no accident because if you look at the other end of the spectrum ie the Washigton Nationals you will find that baseball’s worst team has a leaky bullpen that sports a whopping 5.57 ERA and a success rate of only 42%. As we head into the long dog days of this year’s baseball season these bullpen numbers will become more important as many starters will tail off in the number of innings they can pitch and more games will be decided in the late innings. One of the things I have learned over the years about betting the bases is that when even one of the league’s best relievers comes in to protect a lead for a team you have wagered on you still have at least a 34% chance of losing (based on Mets 66% success rate in above table) and this past week proved to be no exception. Believe it or not these stinging last minute losses is part of the allure for the millions of Americans who love to wager on sports. Thanks for listening.    

A Bettor Approach, MLB, Sports Betting In MLB a bullpen's performance makes a huge difference