How Do New Shooters Fare In The Preakness?
With filly Rachel Alexandra being the talk of Saturday’s 134th running of the Preakness Stakes I thought I might share with you one of the charts I have on new shooters participating in this the second jewel of the Triple Crown. A new shooter in this context is a horse that skipped the Kentucky Derby and is now entered against Derby starters at Pimlico in Baltimore on Saturday afternoon. The chart below shows how Derby horses fared in the last ten runnings of the 1 3/16 Mile Preakness. In any column filled with a “D” followed by a number it is designating a Kentucky Derby starter and where he finished in the Derby (Example: the 2001 Preakness winner finished 5th in the Derby). An “X” means a NON Derby starter finished in that position.
| YEAR | Preakness Winner | Preakness Place | Preakness Show |
| 1999 | D-1 | D-2 | X |
| 2000 | D-1 | D-3 | D-8 |
| 2001 | D-5 | D-7 | D-3 |
| 2002 | D-1 | X | D-2 |
| 2003 | D-1 | X | D-11 |
| 2004 | D-1 | X | X |
| 2005 | D-3 | X | D-1 |
| 2006 | X | D-7 | X |
| 2007 | D-3 | D-1 | D-2 |
| 2008 | D-1 | X | X |
The chart shows that 9 out of the last 10 (90%) Preakness winners were Derby horses and 8 of 10 (80%) hit the board in the Derby. Now you exotic players may find it interesting that in 4 of the 10 (40%) last runnings the exacta was completed by Derby horses. In 3 of 10 years (30%) the trifecta was all Derby starters and in all 20 of 30 (67%) horses finishing in the money in the Preakness were also Kentucky Derby runners. This year’s Derby starters who are also running in the Preakness are listed in the chart below:
| Horse | Derby Finish | Preakness M/L Odds |
| Mine That Bird | 1st | 6/1 |
| Musket Man | 3rd | 8/1 |
| Friesan Fire | 19th | 6/1 |
| Papa Clem | 4th | 12/1 |
| General Quarters | 10th | 20/1 |
| Pioneer of the Nile | 2nd | 5/1 |
| Flying Private | 20th | 50/1 |
I don’t know about you but based on history I see a lot more wagering value in the chart above than I do in betting on an 8/5 filly wheeling back in only two weeks after romping home by twenty plus lengths in the Kentucky Oaks. In fact my Derby/Preakness charts go all the way back to 1971 and I will spare you the details but in summary 33 of the last 38 (87%) Preakness winners have been Derby horses. In addition 23 of those 33 (70%) had hit the board in the Derby. Once again for you exotic players 59 of the 76 (78%) horses completing the last 38 Preakness exactas were Derby horses and 85 of the 114 (75%) entries completing the trifecta were also exiting the Kentucky Derby. Now I like a good looking filly as much as the next guy but tossing Rachel and playing a few of the seven Derby horses might make for a more profitable Saturday.
Stat of the Day: Since 1979 the Kentucky Derby post time favorite has run in the Preakness 25 times winning 8 times (32%) finishing second 5 times (20%) and finishing third 2 times (16%). Does that mean Friesan Fire has a 68% chance of hitting the board in Baltimore on Saturday?