Can Portland Rain On The Laker’s Parade?
Portland Oregon usually gets about 37 inches of rain per year and the only signifigant local dry spell is the Laker’s eight game losing streak at the Rose Garden including last Friday’s 106-98 loss. The setback stood out becuase it showed the matchup problem Kobe has when dealing with the Blazer’s Brandon Roy and what happens to the rest of the Lakers when Kobe’s shots are not falling. NOTHING!! The LA papers are filled with optimisim now that Andrew Bynum has returned to the Laker starting lineup after missing two and a half months with a knee injury. I am not sold on the fact that he could ready for the six week playoff grind to the championship. This morning I found the most generous odds on the darkhorse Blazers at www.PinnacleSports.com They have them listed at 30 to 1 to win the NBA Championship. My regular readers know that I am holding a 5 to 1 ticket on the Cavs to do the same so a little something on Portland is inviting but let’s take a closer look at the numbers.
1) The last 24 NBA Champions have averaged a 1.07 regular season point differential with 1.13 being the highest and 1.02 the lowest for a champion. In fact 15 of the last 24 Champions (63%) have had at least a 1.07. This year there are only four teams that achieved that mark during the regular season: the Cavaliers 1.10, the Celtics and Lakers 1.08 and the Magic at 1.07. Portland came close with a 1.06 differential which interestingly enough is the average for the LOSER of the NBA Finals over those same twenty-four years.
2) 24 of the last 30 (80%) NBA Champions averaged at least 100 points per game. This year half of the sixteen playoff teams failed to achieve that criteria during the regular season: the Rockets, the Spurs, the Heat, the Hawks, the 76ers, the Pistons, the Hornets and THE BLAZERS.
3) 27 of the last 30 (90%) NBA Champions were in the league’s top four regular season point differentials. As we noted in item number one that would be the Cavs, the Lakers, the Celtics and the Magic.
4) Since 1978 NO NBA Champion (30/30) has had a losing road record. Once again half of this year’s playoff squads were unable to win more games on the road than they lost. Those teams are: the 76ers, the Hawks, the Heat, the Bulls, the Rockets, the Mavs, the the Jazz and THE BLAZERS.
5) 12 of the last 14 NBA teams (86%) winning at least 65 regular season games have gone on to win the Championship. This year only the Cavs (66) and the Lakers (65) were able to accomplish that difficult feat.
6) The last negative against putting money down on those 30 to 1 Blazers comes with the fact that since 1978 only 4 teams have even made the NBA Finals after missing the playoffs the previous year. The Heat and the Bulls also fall into this NEWBY FAILURE category this year.
Now I am not writing this week’s ABA to bash the Portland Trailblazers but instead to point you in the direction of the REAL contenders for the 2008/2009 NBA Championship. Bottom line Champions are usually playoff tested teams who average at least 100 points per game and know how to win on the road. Thanks for listening and let’s chat next Friday.
Stat of the Day: Only 3 of the last 24 years (13%) has the league’s highest scoring team won the NBA Championship. That includes Shaq and his Phoenix Suns this year.