Handicapping The Second World Baseball Classic
Three years ago I took a Mexican Riviera Cruise with my nephew who got married on a small island while we were docked in Puerto Vallarta. That same cruise ship docked in Cabo San Lucas the next day and I took a quick tour of the local Caliente sports book in attempt to bet on the innaugaral World Baseball Classic. I liked the 10 to 1 odds on Japan to win the tournament but the house declined my attempted wager because unbeknownst to me Japan had already played a game. Try keeping up with the wide world of sports on a cruise ship when some days you have internet access and some days you don’t. Well here we are three years later and I get another chance to right the SHIP (no pun intended).
The second WBC has the same 16 team field it had in 2006 and the 39 games it takes to crown a champion will begin on March 5th and end in Los Angeles on March 23rd. All the games will be televised on either ESPN or the new MLB network. The US and Dominican Republic teams are the only two comprised of all major league players although the Dominican squad will not have Albert Pujos or Manny Ramirez in the lineup. I believe the defection of many MLB stars along with complaints from many MLB managers puts this tournament in jeopardy moving forward. At least we pundits know that we have three weeks of action this year so let’s get to the business at hand.
I believe wagering on single games is a tough road to how based on the fact many of the players come from varying levels of competition. My attempted hunch bet three years ago was based on the presence of Daisuke Matsuzaka on the Japanees squad and he came through being named the WBC MVP. This year the defending champion not only has Matsuzaka back but they have added 22 year old phenom Yu Danvish considered by many to be the best pitcher in Japan. No wonder according to www.betonline.com they are the -300 favorites to be the winner of Group A. In Group B Cuba is the -500 betting favorite, in Group C the USA is the -300 chalk and finally in Group D the Dominican Republic is posted as the -250 favorite. Putting a little something on all four favorites ($1,350 to win $400) although risky it gives you action in all four Groups and you are betting on four of the five best teams in the tourney. It’s that fifth team that might prevent a first round sweep by the favorites.
Now for picking this year’s champion. Below are the odds posted on www.betonline.com for winning the second World Baseball Classic:
USA +175
Dominican Republic +200
Japan +400
Cuba +800
Korea +2000
If you are a regular reader of this space then you know that I have three steadfast rules when it comes to wagering on the futures:
1) Toss the favorite (Goodbye USA)
2) Toss the returning champion (Goodbye Japan)
3) Insist on at least 5 to1 odss (Goodbye Dominican Republic)
Well that leaves us with two bettable teams Cuba (8 to1) and Korea (20 to 1). Interestingly enough Korea made the semifinals in 2006 and Cuba lost the Championship game to Japan. In fact in the 2006 Classic the Cuban squad tallied the second most total bases finishing behind only eventual champion Japan. The nucleus of their 2006 squad is back for another title run in this year’s edition. Fidel’s national team has been to the finals in 38 straight international tournamnents. They lost the gold medal game in Beijing to a team from Korea. Basically the same team that is 20 to 1 to win the second World Baseball Classic. I will have a little something on both of these squads. Should be fun to watch while we await the start of March Madness. Thanks for listening and let’s chat next Friday.
Stat of the Day: South Africa is 5,000 to 1 to win Group B and 20,000 to 1 to win the 2009 WBC.