What Are We Waiting For?
The NFL would like us to believe that the reason there is a two week wait for the Super Bowl is that it gives teams time to heal and thus the game will be played on more of an even playing field. Bolderdash!!!! The REAL reason is that they get an extra week to hype their product and to sell their licensed products to silly people world wide that are willing to pay a C-note for a real NFL jersey with Warner or some other name on the back. In Vegas I am sure the sports books love the extra week because it gives them time to post hundreds of proposition bets that the the public will bet on purely by guessing and not on any real reliable information or handicapping work. I spent today going through my Super Bowl records and have come away with a very sound opinion on the game that everyone will try and pry from me over the next week or so. The truth is the Steelers opened as a 6 1/2 point favorite and the number has climbed to 7. The money line (betting teams straight up with no points) opened with Pittsburgh at -260 and Arizona at +220. Today you have to lay $280 to win $100 0n the Steelers or you can lay $100 on the Cardinals in the hopes that they do what the Giants did last year and shock the world and you net $230 for knowing that was going to happen. Below I have listed the SPECIAL POINT SPREADS released by the Las Vegas Sports Consultants:
Pitts+3 1/2 -360
Pitts+7 1/2 -650
Pitts+10 1/2 -850
Pitts+14 1/2 -1200
Pitts-3 1/2 -155
Pitts-10 1/2 +165
Pitts-14 1/2 +240
Pitts-17 1/2 +300
Now if you think the Steelers are going to run all over the underdog Cardinals than the last three proposition wagers should be very inviting. Let’s look at the same type of wagers available on Arizona:
Arizona-3 1/2 +280
Arizona-7 1/2 +450
Arizona-10 1/2 +525
Arizona-14 1/2 +800
Arizona+3 1/2 +135
Arizona+10 1/2 -185
Arizona+14 1/2 -300
Arizona+17 1/2 -400
On this side of the ledger it is obvious that the books are daring you to bet on the least logical outcome of the 43rd Super Bowl. They are tantalizing you with possibly winning $800 for every $100 you wager if you believe in your heart the high octane offense of Kurt Warner and company will run all over the number one defense in the NFL this year. Come on, the Steelers allowed only 223 points all season this year which over 16 games averages out to just under 14 points a game. The Steelers gave up over 30 points only once this season surrendering 31 to the Titans back on December 21st. They also allowed 10 or less in 8 of 18 games this season including the playoffs.
The consultants have also tempted the public with some total “variations” whic I have listed below:
Over 34 1/2 -600
Under 34 1/2 +400
Over 38 1/2 -360
Under 38 1/2 +280
Over 51 1/2 +170
Under 51 1/2 -200
Over 55 1/2 +250
Under 55 1/2 -330
Over 59 1/2 +350
Under 59 1/2 -500
Once again the odds makers have teased you with a chance to pick up some “EASY” change for guessing how this championship game will unfold. Logic says that the Steelers will play it close to the vest and keep the ball away from Kurt and company and rely on their defense to win the game. The Cards on the other hand will hope to play a wide open high scoring affair which will put more pressure on Big Ben and company. All these numbers are interesting but just remember before you plunge down on one of these “sure” things that the odds makers know the REAL odds of any of the above REALLY occurring. Thanks for listening and let’s chat next Friday.
Stat of the Day: Favorites are 29-12 ( 71%) STRAIGHT UP in the Super Bowl with the 1982 game going off as pick’em.