Six Weeks To Go And Seven Teams Left
Over the last twenty-two years 19 of the 22 (86%) eventual Super Bowl winners had at least a 7-3 mark at this point in the season. Breaking that statistic down further shows that 4 of 22 (18%) were 7-3, 8 of 22 (36%) were 8-2, 4 of 22 (18%) were 9-1 and 3 of 22 (14%) were a perfect 10-0. I just completed my ten game chart which also is the last one I will do until we reach the playoffs so I thought I would share with you some of my observations on the seven squads that I think have the best chance of reaching Super Bowl XLIII in Tampa Bay next February.
AFC
Tennessee 10-0
The Titans have outscored their opponents 244-131 for a league leading 1.86 point differential and their 131 points given up is also the leagues best. They also lead the league in sacks differential +22 and turnover ratio at +10. They have outgained their opponents on the ground 1327-951 for a respectable 1.40 rushing differential. They are also this year’s last undefeated team and three of the last four years THAT team has at least MADE the Championship game. Without question the AFC’s top contender.
Pittsburgh 7-3
The Steelers keep overcoming their injuries to remain in contention for their seventh Super Bowl appearance but I am not convinced that they can make that last. Big Ben has already taken a beating and the steel curtain doesn’t seem to be working both ways in that this contender has given up almost as many sacks (+1) as their defense has been able to muster. They are only even in turnover ratio as well which is not the sign of a true Super Bowl contender. If they could play all their games at home during the playoffs I would give them a much better chance but they trail the Titans by three games in that category with only six left to play. Maybe next year.
New York Jets 7-3
This group is riding on the ancient arm of Brett Favre and we will know a lot more about the Jet’s REAL chances after their Sunday visit to Nashville. They have outscored their opponents 289-221 for a respectable 1.31 point differential. They are only a +1 in turnover differential but obviously they are doing a bang up job of protecting the “old-guy” sporting a +15 number in sacks differential. The Jets are also good at running the ball outgaining their opponents 1251-813 for a 1.54 rushing yards differential second only to the NFC leading Giants. I will know if they are real come next Monday morning.
NFC
New York Giants 9-1
The defending champions look like the most dominating team in football but you know what I think about betting on repeaters. There is NO VALUE in doing so. Despite that the Giants have the numbers to at least reach the big game in Tampa. They have outscored their opponents 292-170 for a point differential of 1.72 second only to the Titans. They are a +7 in turnovers and a +19 in sacks differential but what they do best is run the ball. They have gained a league leading 1727 yards while allowing only 910 which equals a 1.90 rushing differential which is a full half yard better than the undefeated Titans. A half yard doesn’t sound like much but Championship teams usually control the ball which is what Coughlin’s crew has done all year long. I was very impressed by their performance last Sunday against Ray Lewis and the Raven’s tough defense.
Carolina 8-2
The Panthers seem to be a notch below the Titans and Giants with a respectable 1.43 point differential, a +3 in turnovers and a +8 in sacks. My big question mark here is Jake Delhomme. Is he hurt? His performance at the beginning of the season was a thing of beauty but after watching his last couple of outings I am not convinced he is healthy. His QB rating of 78.4 is the lowest of our seven contending teams. The Panthers also seem to struggle on the road having gone 2-2 so far and with four of their last six contests away from home they may not have any HOME playoff games. Don’t dye your hair blue just yet!!
Tampa Bay 7-3
HC Gruden has this team in playoff position despite a banged up running attack which could start catching up with him as early as this coming weekend. The Bucs have only out gained their opponents 1151-993 on the ground for a 1.16 rushing differential. Not the sign of a Championship team. They have a losing road record (2-3) and must play three of their remaining six away from home. I don’t believe they are going to be the first team to play a Super Bowl on their home field.
Arizona 7-3
Can former grocery bagger Kurt Warner with his 105.5 quarterback rating take the Cardinals to Tampa Bay next February? If they could play ALL their games at home (4-0 this year) then maybe but they are a .500 team on the road and despite having an experienced Super Bowl QB I don’t believe so. In fact it is no coincidence that 6 of these 7 contending squads have starting quarterbacks with Super Bowl experience. The Cardinals also lack the running game needed to reach Tampa having been outrushed 898-869 for a .97 rushing differential. The only one of our seven teams in that situation.
So from where I am sitting it looks like a Titans-Giants Super Bowl but we are still 70+ days away and a lot can happen between now and the end of the year. Thanks for listening and let’s chat next Friday.