Eight Teams Have Inside Track To Super Bowl…
Twelve of the last nineteen Super Bowl winners were either 4-1 or 5-0 at the five game mark of the regular season. Yes, I remember last season’s eventual champion New York Giants were lucky to go 3-2 on their way to Super Bowl XLII but if you have been reading this space for long you know that any 60%+ winning percentage gets this handicapper’s attention. 12 of 19=63% of the last nineteen Super Bowl winners started the season either 4-1 or 5-0. In addition to that 7 of the last 19 winners went 5-0. This year’s edition of the Tennessee Titans are the only squad that fits into this 37 percentile. I thought I would take a closer look at these eight teams to perhaps help separate the pretenders from the contenders.
As always I start by ranking the teams by their point differential (Points scored divided by points allowed). Below are each team’s five game numbers:
1) Titans 2.05
2) Giants 1.68
3) Panthers 1.63
4) Cowboys 1.36
5) Steelers 1.30
6) Bills 1.21
7) Broncos 1.15
Redskins 1.11
Given the fact that the last twenty-four Super Bowl winners have averaged a regular season point differential of 1.68 bids well for anyone backing the Titans, the Giants or the Panthers.
The next category I list on my five game chart is turnover ratio:
1) Titans +6
2) Redskins +6
3) Steelers +3
4) Panthers +1
5) Giants -2
6) Bills -3
7) Broncos -3
Cowboys -4
Very rarely does a championship team make more mistakes than their opponents. Enough said.
The next category I list is sacks ratio (Sacks made minus sacks given up)
1) Titans +13
2) Cowboys +10
3) Giants +9
4) Broncos +7
5) Panthers +1
6) Steelers -1
7) Redskins -2
Bills -6
Being able to control the line of scrimmage is high priority for all teams and protecting the quarterback becomes more and more important as the season progresses. The Patriots failed to do so and from all appearances their season is over.
NFL head coaches know they have to have a running game to make their passing attack effective and very rarely does a team win a championship without one. Below I have ranked these eight teams by their rushing yards differential (Yards gained on the ground divided by yards given up on the ground).
1) Giants 1.92
2) Redskins 1.72
3) Steelers 1.59
4) Cowboys 1.47
5) Panthers 1.25
6) Titans 1.24
7) Broncos .88
Bills .86
It is no accident that the two top teams and three of the top four on this list are from the NFC East. These three teams as well as the Eagles play smash mouth football establishing the run and daring their opponents to try and stop them. This stat makes me cast a wary eye on the Bills and Broncos who are not out gaining their opponents on the ground.
The last stat I will look at today is each team’s quarterback rating. Tony Romo had the best rating amongst the contenders at 100.5 but he is out for at least a month so I will no longer include him on the list.
1) Campbell-Redskins 96.7
2) Cutler-Broncos 96.1
3) Roethlisberger-Steelers 95.7
4) Edwards-Bills 93.9
5) Manning-Giants 91.4
6) Delhomme-Panthers 90.6
7) Collins-Titans 73.1
Here we have the Titan’s weak link. A link I acknowledged existed two weeks back when I wagered on Tennessee to win the AFC and to capture Super Bowl XLIII. I am confident that savy head coach Jeff Fisher will devise game plans within Collin’s limitations and don’t forget Kerry Collins has Super Bowl experience albeit a losing one it still counts. Thanks for listening and let’s chat next Friday.
Stat of the Day: If the Titans can win their next three games and start 8-0 they will be in some very successful company. 8 of the last 11 NFL teams starting 8-0 (73%) MADE the Super Bowl. 6 of 11 (55%) WON the Super Bowl.