Early Returns Can Be Helpful But Deceiving
I spent this morning going over the early returns on last weekend’s opening NFL games and thought I would share with you some of the stats I like to look at as we all try and gauge the strengths and weaknesses of all the teams as we approach weekend number two.
Turnovers
Nothing can change the complexion of a game like a turnover can. We can all remember a wager or two that turned on a last minute turnover whether it made us a winner or a loser. Last weekend Arizona came out of their game against the 49ers with a league leading +5 in turnover ratio so does that mean we plow down on them to do the same against the woeful Dolphins? Maybe so but another train of thought might be that the Cardinals aren’t that good and perhaps the 49ers are really that BAD. Buffalo and Pittsburgh also ended up on the high side both coming out of their opening contests with +2 in turnovers. The Bills are getting 5 ½ points at home against this year’s wise guy Super Bowl pick the Jacksonville Jaguars. The same Jags who lost last week to the Tennessee Titans and their basket case quarterback. I definitely would not be in a hurry to lay those points.
Defense-Total Yards
Championships are won in the trenches and controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball will determine which teams will be playing next February in Tampa. Last weekend there were three teams Baltimore, Philadelphia and Tennessee that allowed less than 200 total yards which is the mark of a champion. Granted it is ONLY a one-week sampling but it doesn’t hurt to start taking a serious look at these squads. Not surprisingly two of these three squads, Philadelphia and Tennessee, gave up less than 50 yards on the ground. How they do in this category in week two definitely will have my attention.
Offense-Total Yards
Most NFL fans love offense. They tend to remember the high scoring flashy teams over the ones that grind out hard fought low scoring victories by playing great defense and by minimizing their mistakes. Last weekend there were five NFL teams that amassed over 400 yards in total offense:
Eagles 522
Cowboys 487
Falcons 474
Broncos 441
Saints 438
The Eagles are the only squad that appear on this list and are also in the top three total defenses after one week of play. Once again you must proceed with caution because it will take another week or so before we find out if the Eagles are real Super Bowl contenders or if the Rams are really that pathetic. It is worth noting that these are basically the same Eagles minus one TO that played the Patriots tough in Super Bowl XXXIX back in 2005. Their field leader Donavan McNabb is still in charge having survived the Owens fiasco and multiple injuries so maybe the Eagles ARE REALLY back. We will know for sure this Monday night when they travel to Dallas for Monday night football.
Quarterbacks
The final stat I like to look at is quarterback rating. You don’t have to look very far back to remember you can’t win a championship without a very good quarterback. I still have nightmares about Rex Grossman’s two fumble two interception performance back in Super Bowl XLI. Just ask the Patriot organization what happened to their dream of returning to Tampa Bay to avenge last year’s Super Bowl loss when they saw Tom Brady limp off the field last weekend? It is no surprise a handful of QBs have won multiple Super Bowls. It takes a special leader to get his team to the big game and an even more special one to win once he gets them there. Let’s take a look at which QBs performed the best on opening day:
QB QB Rating
Roethisberger 147.0
Cutler 137.5
McNabb 131.0
Farve 125.9
Rivers 125.1
Brees 124.9
Surprise, surprise three of the top six performers have Super Bowl experience and there is Donovan McNabb right up there with the leaders. At the other end of the spectrum we find Carson Palmer at 32.3 and Basket Case Young at 45.6.
As week number two approaches and whether you are trying to win a friendly wager, pick winners in the local pub’s pool or remove a few suitcases of money from the Las Vegas desert floor just remember the public will be betting on and or against what they saw last weekend so a little studying might prove to be profitable. Thanks for listening and let’s chat next Friday.
Stat of the Day: Since 1990, 96 of the 147 (65%) NFL teams going 2-0 made the playoffs.